AsiaPacific Issues

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10125/2458

Papers in the AsiaPacific Issues series address topics of broad interest and significant impact relevant to current and emerging policy debates. These eight-page, peer-reviewed papers are accessible to readers outside the author's discipline.

The East-West Center ScholarSpace community contains digital versions of just some of the several thousand books, periodicals, and unpublished papers generated by the Center over the past 50 years. Find a complete list of recent East-West Center publications and learn how to obtain them at EastWestCenter.org/publications . Search for recent and older works from 1960 - present using the Center's library catalog at EastWestCenter.org/riscatalog.

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Now showing 1 - 20 of 172

Human Rights in Afghanistan
(East-West Center, 2024-02-01) Adeli, Zakia
Following the collapse of the Islamic Republic regime, the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The Taliban’s abolition of the 2004 constitution and other internal regulations has set the stage for Tali-ban fighters to engage in violent and arbitrary practices. The dismal human rights situation in Afghanistan has prompted international organizations to express serious concerns and to demand an examination of the Taliban regime’s conduct toward the Afghan people. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the repercussions of the Taliban’s policies on citizen rights, which are divided into two distinct categories: civil-political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights. This research uses qualitative methods through an applied documentary approach, assessing 102 international research articles, reports, and analyses on civil rights in Afghanistan over a two-year period, informed by the author’s experience in policy formulation in Afghanistan. Engagements with primary sources in Afghanistan also corroborated research findings. The research demonstrates the extent to which the repeal of Afghanistan’s constitution and laws has triggered unlawful policies and egregious behaviors that have had detrimental consequences on human rights.
Drought, Flood, and Rice Security in Central Thailand
(East-West Center, 2024-02-21) Yokying, Phanwin; Promkhambut, Arunee
With roughly 63 percent of the country’s agricultural area allocated for rice farming, rice has long been a key food staple and export crop for Thailand. As with other crops, rice is heavily dependent on water, whether it is from precipitation or irrigation, and is also sensitive to changing temperatures. The impacts of droughts and floods on rice farming are a fundamental source of concern for Thai farmers and the government. This article focuses on the effects of droughts and floods on rice quality and quantity, as well as on farmers’ rice income and prospects for livelihood diversification. Based on our interviews with rice farmers in Uthaithani, Chainat, and Ayutthaya, droughts and floods diminish rice yields and increase incidences of crop failures, both partial and complete. They also lower the quality of rice and further depress net head rice yields by altering rice grain dimensions and moisture levels, as well as increasing the amount of cracked and immature grains. These outcomes contribute to a significant decline in farmers’ earnings and investment losses in the case of crop failures. Reduced access to government subsidies together with increased input costs due to droughts and floods are also crucial factors decreasing farmers’ earnings. Off-farm and on-farm livelihood diversification becomes an inevitable survival strategy for many rice-farming households to manage weather related challenges, stabilize their income, and smooth consumption. Our findings point out the need to bolster on-farm adaption capacities of rice farmers at the household, provincial, and national levels to ensure domestic and global rice security and ameliorate dangers to Thai farmers’ livelihood and well-being.
Korea-US Cooperation on Climate Change in the Pacific as Part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy
(East-West Center, 2024-04-30) Kim, Kyounghae
In 2022, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States (US) released their Indo-Pacific strategies as major foreign policy statements. While existing analyses of this topic focus on shifting power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and their consequences for the US-China rivalry, there is less attention on implications for global challenges such as climate change. This study explores how the ROK and US can bolster climate change cooperation in the Pacific Islands region within the framework of their Indo-Pacific strategies. This analysis reveals that the ROK’s readiness to assume an active role and the US’ call for the involvement of “allies and partners” can shape future collaboration. This study also provides policy recommendations concerning possible pathways and potential areas for future collaboration.
Commodities and Global Climate Governance: Early Evidence From the EU Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR)
(East-West Center, 2024-04-30) Fisher, Micah R.; Obidzinski, Krystof; Mota Alves, Ariel; Ekaputri, Andini Desita
Increasing urgency to address climate change has heightened efforts by the world’s highest-emitting countries to implement a suite of policies targeted at relieving pressures on the world’s forests. Prominent among these are initiatives regulating commodity supply chains most responsible for climate change. This paper addresses the most ambitious of such initiatives to date, the European Union Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR), which was formally adopted by the European Parliament on June 30, 2023. Drafters of EUDR suggest it can reduce annual emissions by 32 million tons of carbon, but calculations and achievement of these reductions are contingent on various factors. We provide a policy implementers view of EUDR’s key issues and draw on experience from past regulations to highlight fundamental challenges and concerns. While much of current policy analysis focuses on geopolitics and bilateral trade tensions, EUDR’s supporting infrastructure is getting underway and largely overlooked. The extent of its success rests on four key issues: 1) credible and equitable mechanisms in producer countries to ensure traceability of deforestation-free products, 2) more equitable trade terms, 3) internal EU cohesion, and 4) overcoming risks to the most vulnerable producers. How these issues unfold will also structure other ambitious emerging policies, such as the US FOREST Act and the UK Environment Act.
Revisiting the Cambodia-Thailand Maritime Dispute: International Law, Politics and Nationalism
(East-West Center, 2024-06-27) Jones, William J.
This article analyzes the historical and continuing Cambodia-Thailand maritime dispute in the Overlapping Claims Area of the Gulf of Thailand, first looking into the history of the dispute to identify primary sticking points that have led to the five decade deadlock and then considering current politics, attendant risks and possibilities of finding a solution to the deadlock. The author argues that policy makers have a historic opportunity to seize the moment by using large amounts of political capital accumulated in the elections last year to break the longstanding impasse. Policy makers must pay heed to nationalisms in both countries to lessen the risks of negotiation failure. If policy makers stick to international law as the basis of their negotiations and of the narrative they present to their publics, and push forward with territorial claims that provide for equitable distribution of the disputed area’s 11 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, both countries could achieve energy security in the short and medium term.
Smallholder Cash Cropping Expansion and the Privatization of Communal Forestland in Southeast Myanmar
(East-West Center, 2024-05-28) Woods, Kevin
The spread of smallholder cash cropping in Myanmar’s southeast is undermining Karen customary land use practices and communal tenure. The ceasefire agreement reached in 2012 with the main Karen rebel group, the KNU, led to a rapid expansion of smallholder cash cropping. Based on field research during 2020–2023 in 19 Karen villages under Karen rebel administration, we found smallholder agriculture to have directly contributed to significant land use change and the privatization of communal forestland. Wealthier Karen villagers and newly arrived non-Karen migrants are increasingly replacing Karen traditional swidden rice farming and their communal tenure system with that of private household cash cropping plots with land titles. This agrarian change has increased land disparity and economic inequality, and transformed Karen relations to land and the Karen rebel group. These findings point to challenges for community-led forest conservation, the revitalization of the traditional Karen governance system, and ethno-nationalist struggles for federal democracy.
Decoding Social Media’s Role in Taliban 2.0 and its Implications for Afghan Youth
(East-West Center, 2024-07-22) Akram, Muhammad; Nasar, Asim; Perveen, Shama
The Taliban retook control of Afghanistan on Aug. 15, 2021 after two decades of fighting on the ground and manipulating narratives online, particularly on social media. Their tactical use of social media was more evident in 2021 when they were advancing their territorial gains and posting on social media to promote the idea of their impending return to power. This study aims to understand the (ab)use of social media by the resurgent Taliban 2.0 and to suggest ways young Afghans can utilize social media to navigate their lives under the new regime. The authors undertook a critical review of the literature to analyze the Taliban’s social media tactics in manipulating public narratives to portray themselves as the legitimate rulers of Afghans. The study finds that the Taliban’s adaptation of social media tools helped them retake control of Afghanistan by influencing public narratives in their favor. This study recommends promoting critical thinking abilities among young Afghans to utilize social media to express dissent and advocate for their rights.
Nusantara: Climate Dilemmas of a “Green” Capital City in Indonesia
(East-West Center, 2024-10-15) Fisher, Micah; Longman, Ryan J.; Maryudi, Ahmad; Laraswati, Dwi
Even before Indonesia’s independence, its leaders had drafted plans to relocate the capital city. Proponents gave various reasons at different times, but with Jakarta’s stifling traffic and perennial flooding, the government is now translating visions of relocation into action. Construction of the new capital, Nusantara, is already underway in East Kalimantan province. Nusantara is an ambitious and symbolic nation-building project that positions Indonesia as an increasingly confident player on the international stage. Underpinning these plans are aims to solve the more complex environmental hazards and challenges associated with climate change. Much ink has been spilled on the social, political, and technical dimensions of Nusantara, but less scrutiny has focused on the assumptions of a climate forward capital city. As this green developmentalism takes shape, we more closely examine the climate dimensions of the project, exploring the extent of its climate mitigation impacts, while also homing in on its potential for adaptation and resilience. Our findings suggest that under the project’s current course, emissions are likely to increase significantly, worsening vulnerabilities in Jakarta and creating new ones in East Kalimantan. Nevertheless, the future remains unwritten, with many crossroads and opportunities to change direction.
Navigating Water Challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: How Can a Shift in Water Management Help?
(East-West Center, 2025-01-24) Tran, Thong Anh; Yong, Ming Li
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is currently grappling with multiple water challenges. These challenges stem from the alteration of the Mekong River’s natural flows caused by upstream hydropower development, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and local policies that prioritize agricultural production. This article examines how these combined stressors have prompted a shift in water management strategies—from focusing on water expulsion to water retention—to tackle water scarcity and achieve long-term water security in the VMD. Case studies from An Giang and Ben Tre showcase evolving water management approaches, revealing how state-led expansions of water infrastructure have contributed to water scarcity and increased the vulnerability of rural inhabitants. Achieving sustainable water security requires integrating empirical research with policy insights by considering the complex dynamics of local and transboundary water conditions, as well as the contestations between state-driven water management strategies and livelihood preferences of local farmers. We advocate for a balanced approach that recognizes and utilizes diverse water resources for rural livelihood development, particularly in coastal zones. While freshwater remains essential for agriculture and household needs, incorporating brackish and saline water into local development strategies can better align with farmers’ aspirations for sustainable and profitable livelihoods.
China and Angola: From the Pioneering “Angolan Model” to a “New” Relationship
(East-West Center, 2024-11-25) Yoshikawa, Sumie
China’s relationship with Angola is an important case in the larger strategic competition between Beijing and the economically developed, liberal democratic states for political influence in the Global South. China has provided large loans to Angola since the 2000s and, in return, acquired Angola’s petroleum to meet China’s high domestic energy demands. Angola has repaid the majority of its debt to China in the form of extracted oil. This contractual arrangement is known as the “Angolan model.” However, China’s large loans only enriched a small segment of Angola’s elite circle and spread serious corruption. The drop in global oil prices since 2014 has left Angola in serious economic distress. Angola’s oil production has also peaked. The “Angolan model” of collateralizing oil for loans became difficult to sustain. Angola’s new administration is seeking to develop non-oil industries to diversify its economy away from its traditional dependency on oil exports. China’s role, nevertheless, will not decrease and may increase. While oil remains paramount for China and Angola, cooperation between the two countries is gradually expanding into broader areas beyond its petroleum.
Solar Panels and EV Batteries: US Green Energy Policies Toward China
(East-West Center, 2025-01-06) Harwit, Eric
As of mid-2023, China produced 97 percent of the world’s solar panel silicon wafers and was rapidly growing in importance as a provider of batteries for the latest generations of electric vehicles. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had provisions to help US manufacturers of green technologies in the energy and automotive industries compete in key sectors against China. By late 2024, however, American efforts in these two vital green energy areas had seen both false starts at competition and defensive efforts that may be counterproductive to US interests. Recent developments called into question whether the Biden administration’s strategy to create a domestic bulwark against Chinese manufacturing would further, or perhaps more likely hinder, the simultaneous American goal of rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies. This article assesses both the solar panel and electric vehicle battery sectors, and considers the challenges and opportunities that Chinese competition creates for the US. As the Biden administration came to an end, the IRA stood to facilitate progress in both arenas, though policy toward China’s participation in the sectors would likely shape the pace at which these industries would develop.
Why North Korean nuclear blackmail is unlikely
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2023-11) Roy, Denny; East-West Center
Nuclear-armed North Korea is now expanding and diversifying its arsenal and delivery systems, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. This generates fears that Pyongyang intends to use nuclear coercion to force its political agenda upon South Korea while negating the “nuclear umbrella” provided by Seoul’s ally the United States. Even the expanded nuclear arsenal, however, is unlikely to embolden Pyongyang either to demand specific concessions from Seoul during peacetime on pain of a nuclear attack, or to employ conventional military attacks more aggressively under the cover provided by North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Absent an attempt by Seoul and Washington to topple the Kim regime through invasion, nuclear threats by Pyongyang lack credibility. From Pyongyang’s standpoint, North Korea’s nuclear weapons strategy is explainable as part of an essentially self-defensive posture. The US and South Korean governments should therefore avoid policies that might unnecessarily push Pyongyang toward more aggressive actions.
Community driven development, climate change, and resiliency : lessons from Solomon Islands
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2023-09) Anderson, Bobby; East-West Center; Chiang Mai University. School of Public Policy
Between 2009 and 2022, the Rural Development Program (RDP) built 663 small scale infrastructure projects chosen by communities across Solomon Islands. As RDP closed, the author visited 68 projects to assess a) the utility of the Community Driven Development (CDD) methodology, and b) how CDD may have been used by communities to ameliorate climate and disaster impacts. He surprisingly found that communities used CDD to replace water sources damaged by logging. Overall, CDD proved robust and adaptable, and was used by communities to build needed climate- and disaster-resilient infrastructure. However, the ability for communities to respond to climate risk was limited due to the scale of sea level rise. This paper concludes with recommendations to make community-led interventions more resilient to climate and disaster risk.
China's 5G mobile technology in Asia : US security concerns and regional economic priorities
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2023-05) Harwit, Eric; East-West Center
Seeing Chinese fifth generation, or “5G,” mobile communications technology as a potential security threat, the US government has been discouraging other countries from using Chinese 5G equipment despite its global popularity. Understanding this issue requires an explanation of American security concerns related to Chinese 5G technology and a review of the steps the US government has taken to ban Chinese equipment from US communications networks.

The responses of several Asian countries to American calls for a prohibition against Chinese 5G equipment are varied. While close US allies generally follow the American call to avoid incorporating Chinese communications equipment, some less developed Asian nations have put economic considerations above security concerns. As a consequence, US policy could create a communications schism between the US and some developing Asian nations. Despite the likelihood of this negative outcome, American policy makers may continue to urge against the use of Chinese equipment because they prioritize security over other considerations.
Valuing longer, healthier lives : assessing the productivity of health spending in South Korea
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2023-03) Eggleston, Karen; POSCO Fellow, East-West Center; Stanford University, Asia Health Policy Program
This research studies the link between medical spending and health outcomes in South Korea, providing evidence on the productivity of medical spending over recent decades.

The author advocates for the Korean government to develop a “satellite account for health” to complement national income and product accounts. Current measures do not account for changing quality nor give providers any incentive for cost-effective substitution between forms of treatment for a given condition. By leveraging existing strengths of Korea’s National Health Insurance and health outcome data, Korea can develop an accurate measure of medical productivity and a more accurate measure of overall economic productivity, while becoming a global pioneer of “health satellite accounts” for overall populations. Such a productivity metric built on condition-specific net value can help Korea increase the “bang for the buck” from medical spending, mitigate wasteful spending, and promote high-value innovations for longer, healthier lives.
Economic sanctions during humanitarian emergencies : the case of North Korea
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2023-01) Haggard, Stephan; Noland, Marcus; Korea-Pacific Studies, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego; Peterson Institute for International Economics; East-West Center
North Korea is experiencing yet another cycle of humanitarian distress. While sanctions are not the primary cause, they are a contributing factor. This essay examines the channels through which sanctions affect the North Korean economy and reaches four conclusions: First, sanctions have contributed to a deterioration of economic performance. Second, the UNSC's 1718 Sanctions Committee should consider a thorough review to identify goods that would warrant blanket humanitarian financial sanctions have raised the risk premium on all financial transactions with North Korea; the sanctioning authorities need to do a better job of clarifying transactions permissible under humanitarian exemptions. Finally, while the global community should reassess its policies, the government of North Korea bears responsibility as well. The benefits of sanctions relief will be diminished if North Korea refuses to engage constructively with the international community on a broader range of issues running from basic humanitarian relief to economic reform.
Asia’s push for monetary alternatives
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2022-12) Noland, Marcus; Peterson Institute for International Economics; East-West Center
For the last quarter century, Asia has been seeking greater autonomy within the existing international monetary system. While the region has had the resources to go its own way, intraregional rivalries and a reluctance to damage ties to the US and the International Monetary Fund have put a damper on regional initiatives. Now the ascendency of China offers a path toward greater regional autonomy in monetary affairs. Asia, led by China, has been playing a two-track strategy pushing for greater influence within the existing global institutions, while developing its own parallel institutions such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Use of the Chinese renminbi will likely grow as a trade invoicing currency but expanded use of the renminbi as a reserve currency is more uncertain. It is possible that the dollar-centered international financial system could evolve into a multipolar system with multiple currencies playing key roles.
The Indian farmer makes her voice heard
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2022-12) Kandikuppa, Sandeep; Gupta, Pallavi; East-West Center; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
In August 2020, thousands of farmers, mostly from Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, gathered on the outskirts of India’s national capital, New Delhi, to protest the passage of three controversial “farm laws” perceived by these farmers as threats to their livelihoods and well-being. Though the farm laws would affect only a small percentage of India’s farmers, over the next 16 months the protests attracted participation from across the country, cutting across class, caste, gender, and religious identities. While the proximate driver seemed to be the farmers’ fear of losing legal protections against a collapse in the market price of their produce, broader economic, ecological, and social factors helped trigger the movement. The protestors employed several strategies that made their movement successful enough in pushing back against a hugely popular government to bring about a repeal of the laws the farmers objected to.
North Korean food insecurity : is famine on the horizon?
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2022-08) Noland, Marcus; Peterson Institute for International Economics; East-West Center
North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency with food insecurity at its core. Data on grain prices and quantities depict a deteriorating situation, made worse by the regime’s self-isolating response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The grain supply appears to have fallen below minimum human needs, but the situation is neither as dire as the 1990s famine nor as severe as conditions elsewhere in the world today.

Food insecurity in North Korea is not only a humanitarian issue, but it is a strategic issue as well. From the perspective of donors, given the lack of regime accountability, at the present time aid is unlikely to be an effective lever in achieving other diplomatic goals, nor does North Korea appear to be the potential recipient of greatest need.
China's military advances make case for strategic stability talks
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2022-05) Saalman, Lora; SIPRI; East-West Center
China has long sought to distinguish its nuclear posture and force structure from those of Russia and the United States. However, its recent military advances and shifts in arsenal size, mating posture, alert status, dual-capable systems, and machine learning and autonomy demonstrate an ever-growing degree of convergence with these two countries. While introducing the potential for arms races or crises, these developments also increase the impetus for strategic stability dialogues. Unlike arms control negotiations, which tend to concentrate on limits to weapons development and numbers, strategic stability dialogues are broader and focus on weapons employment and escalation. Though past efforts to engage in such talks have met with challenges, the appeal of strategic stability talks may be growing.

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