Population Institute. Papers
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10125/22528
Presents findings and policy implications from research on population issues in Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. The series reflects diverse disciplinary and cultural perspectives on population issues. Since its publication in 1970, the series has changed several times. Titles may be found under the following series: Papers of the East-West Population Institute, Papers of the Program on Population, EWC Occasional Papers, Population Series, Population and Health Series.
The East-West Center ScholarSpace community contains digital versions of just some of the several thousand books, periodicals, and unpublished papers generated by the Center over the past 50 years. Find a complete list of recent East-West Center publications and learn how to obtain them at EastWestCenter.org/publications . Search for recent and older works from 1960 - present using the Center's library catalog at EastWestCenter.org/riscatalog.
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Item type: Item , The demographic situation in the Republic of Korea(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1973-12) Cho, Lee-Jay; East-West Population InstituteRecent demographic developments in the Republic of Korea—including changes in the population growth rate, mortality, fertility, and distribution—are documented by means of Census and survey data. A sharp decline in mortality since the end of the Korean War and a dramatic decline in fertility in the 1960s have produced an unusually rapid demographic transition accompanied by important socioeconomic changes. Causes and consequences of the transition are examined, in particular the phenomenon of rural-to-urban migration, and a projection of population size and distribution is made for the year 2000Item type: Item , The demographic situation in Indonesia(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1973-12) McNicoll, Geoffrey; Mamas, Si Gde Made; East-West Population InstituteCurrent fertility, mortality, and migration patterns in Indonesia are described, together with some background material necessary for context. Preliminary estimates of fertility based on the Cho-Grabill "own-children" method applied to the 1971 Census results are presented, indicating an average total fertility rate for Indonesia of about 5.5. Birth rates are substantially lower in Java than in the other major islands, despite Java's younger age at marriage. Mortality appears to be generally high relative to neighboring countries, and there is evidence of lesser infant and greater adult mortality than is found in Coale-Demeny model patterns. Serious age reporting errors and possibilities of underenumeration prevent its accurate measurement, however. Rural-urban migration has been notably slow in the 1961s, with the exception of Jakarta and a few provincial cities servicing extractive industries.
Factors likely to influence trends in vital rates over the next decade include a rising mean age at marriage, continued large cohorts entering peak ages of reproduction and mobility, improved economic conditions in urban areas, and a vigorous clinic-based family planning program in Java and Bali. Serious problems of ecological degradation already evident in rural Java and significant shifts in economic arrangements affecting access to the harvest are also likely to have demographic repercussions.Item type: Item , Representation of national and regional political units in a computerized world future model(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-10) Maggs, Peter B.; East-West Population InstituteRecent, highly-publicized computerized world future models developed by Jay W. Forrester and by Donella H. Meadows and others have formed the basis for suggested policies that would require major changes in international and national legal rules. These models make no attempt, however, to incorporate the existing world legal structure.
The author has rewritten one of these models, that by Forrester, to incorporate variables representing legal controls of international movement of population, natural resources, food, and pollution. Results from computer runs with this revised model suggest that a wide range of national policies on such questions as population growth, economic growth, and national resource usage may be compatible with world equilibrium.
Appendices to the paper present FORTRAN computer programs for both the original model and the author's extended model.Item type: Item , Spatial patterns of socio-economic structure and change in the Philippines, 1939-60(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-08) Fuchs, Roland J.; Luna, Telesforo W.; East-West Population InstituteThe present study examines aspects of the uneven spatial distribution of modernization and development within the Philippines over the period 1939-60. Factor analysis is applied to comparable provincial data from the 1939 and 1960 censuses to study variations in the relationships among demographic, socio-cultural, and economic characteristics. More specifically the objectives of the study are (1) to uncover the patterns of association, that is, the underlying factors or dimensions, among selected socio-economic characteristics of Philippine provinces in 1939 and again in 1960; (2) to examine the stability or instability of the dimensions extracted from 1939 data compared with those extracted from the 1960 data; (3) to discover existing patterns of interdependency among the changes in socioeconomic characteristics of provinces from 1939 to 1960; (4) to reveal areal associations and patterns of development and change in 1939, 1960, and for the period 1939-60.
The paper then is essentially empirical and inductive. However, while the study has not been specifically designed to deductively examine existing spatial development models, some of its findings obviously bear on regional inequality models and such related concepts as economic dualism, growth poles and modernization. The inclusion in the analysis of various population characteristics permits us to examine to some extent how changes in these characteristics are associated with other changes in the Philippine development process.Item type: Item , Legal regulation of population movement to, from, and within the United States : a survey of current law and constitutional limitations(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-06) Maggs, Peter B.; East-West Population InstituteA wide variety of federal and state laws affect population movement both directly and indirectly. However the powers of both the federal and state governments to regulate population movement have been severely restricted by a series of Supreme Court decisions interpreting the Constitution.
The federal government has and exercises extensive powers for the regulation of international immigration. State governments, however, may only regulate immigration to the extent powers are delegated by the federal government.
An increasingly strong constitutional doctrine of a right to travel is emerging. This doctrine greatly limits both federal and state power to directly limit population movement. Existing state legislation penalizing population movement by discriminating against new residents cannot stand constitutional scrutiny.
Considerable scope does exist within constitutional limits for both federal and state regulation movement. However such regulation must avoid both direct restriction upon the right to travel and discrimination in favor of long-term state residents.Item type: Item , Optimal population policy(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-05) Arthur, W. Brian; McNicoll, Geoffrey; East-West Population InstituteThis paper investigates the notion of optimality in population policy through the use of simple analytical and numerical examples. A control theoretic framework is adopted which does not restrict the analysis to a particular criterion of welfare nor to particular assumptions about the economy or population. Given an arbitrarily specified index of societal welfare and a set of assumptions on underlying economic and population dynamics, the corresponding policies can be deduced that maximize over time this measure of welfare. The necessary conditions for the solution of the problem provide insights into the tradeoffs inherent in maintaining optimality. In addition, the analysis allows the isolation of the factors and parameters to which the optimal policy in a given situation is most sensitive.
The very simple models discussed in the paper serve to stress the importance of the ethical assumptions of population policy. They suggest that whether a society has a high or a low aversion, to crowding or environmental degradation has relatively little impact on its optimal population policy compared to its valuation on the welfare of future generations and of potential entrants to the society.Item type: Item , A model for the age distribution of first marriage(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-04) Feeney, Griffith; East-West Population InstituteA model is developed in which a woman's age at first marriage is regarded as the sum of two components, the interval between birth and entry to a hypothetical marriage pool, and the interval between entry to this marriage pool and marriage. The model is fitted to observed age patterns of first marriage in fifteen cohorts of United States white females who reached age 20 between 1902 and 1944. The observed age patterns are estimated from retrospective data in the 1960 census. An analysis of biases due to differential mortality by marital status is given.Item type: Item , Population policy under an arbitrary welfare criterion : theory and issues(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-03) Arthur, W. Brian; East-West Population InstituteMany well-defined policy problems can be formally described as follows: Let x(t) be an n-dimensional vector describing the state of a system at time t , and y(t) be an m-dimensional vector of policy instrument variables at time t. Let U = U[x(t),y(t),t] be a measure of the condition or "welfare" of a system in state x and adopting policies y at time t. Then it is possible to evaluate any specified policy {y(t), 0≤t≤T} by its impact on J =∫T0 U dt . In particular, an optimal policy is one that maximizes J subject to whatever constraints on x and y are applicable.
Analyzing this formulation by means of the calculus of variations enables one to relate a variation δy(t) in policy to the variation δJ in J that it induces. This relation involves also a set of multiplier functions (analogous to Lagrange multipliers) that can be interpreted as the "shadow prices" of the state variables.
In this paper, population policy is analyzed in the above format, with stress on the demographic insights that follow from the variational approach. Particular problems investigated in terms of simple but fairly general models are: the value of a marginal birth (the shadow price of the state variable, population); the conditions under which δy is a policy improvement, i.e., δJ is positive (enabling, inter alia, a rigorous definition of "overpopulation"); and the characteristics of an optimal policy.Item type: Item , Multivariate analysis of areal fertility in Honolulu(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-03) Park, Chai Bin; East-West Population InstituteIn this paper, efforts have been made to uncover possible relationships between areal fertility and a large number of socioeconomic indicators within a well-defined urban community, using recent data. Both regression and factor analyses have been employed in order to measure the dependency of fertility on indicators and the interdependency among all the variables involved. The data studied here are for the 1960 census tracts of Honolulu, Hawaii. The data have been examined separately by level of urban gradation and type of fertility measurement.Item type: Item , What mathematical demography tells that we would not know without it(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-03) Keyfitz, Nathan; East-West Population InstituteThe purpose of the mathematics of population is to answer common sense questions, for instance about the effects of changing births on the proportion of old people, or the effect of abortions on the birth rate. Very often the answers it gives are the opposite of those given by common sense, and in such cases we have to adjust our common sense to accord with what the mathematics show to be true. In other instances the direction of an effect is obvious, but we need a technical analysis to estimate its amount.
This paper takes up 20 problems, compels each to submit to mathematical analysis, and extracts from the mathematics a result that is of use in its own right. Such results can guide people who are working at some practical issue concerned with population, and they can enable the citizen to have clearer understanding of what is going on in a field that citizens can no longer neglect.Item type: Item , Households, families, and friends in a Hawaiian-American community(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-11) Howard, Alan; East-West Population InstituteData concerning household membership and intimate personal networks from a Hawaiian-American homestead community are analyzed. Problems of defining concepts like "household" and "family" are considered and resolved in favor of operational measures. The analysis reveals a pattern of extended household structure based on bilateral options, with a distinct bias toward uxorilocal post-marital residence choice. This bias tends to bring together a core of lineally related women around whom households are formed and social relations rotate. The evidence also suggests that men are more unstable, diffusive and less economically conservative in social relationships than women. The differential significance of kinship and friendship relations, and changes in network composition associated with age are also discussed.Item type: Item , On aggregative economic models and population policy(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-10) McNicoll, Geoffrey; East-West Population InstituteThe aim of this paper is to set out the requirements of a theory of optimal economic--demographic growth. There are three sections. The first is a discussion of the ethical assumptions that necessarily underlie the choice of an index of social welfare in a policy model. Economic optimization theory can and usually does take as self-evident what should be maximized. When the size of population is assumed to be influenced by policy decisions, however, the ethical bases of policy come to the forefront.
The second section provides a categorization of aggregative economic-demographic models, and identifies some likely directions of advance in this presently underdeveloped field. Most of the existing literature derives from (and shares the weaknesses of) optimal capital accumulation theory, with an inordinate concern for golden ages and Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. In an appendix, the author adds a model of his own in the same tradition.
The final part of the paper explores the interconnections between abstract policy models and the actual decisions that policymakers are confronted with (or make implicitly), issues discussed include the inherent strengths and limitations of policy models, and the extent to which it is useful to analyze population policy separately from "social policy at large".Item type: Item , Population research in the Pacific Islands : a case study and some reflections(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-09) Chapman, Murray; East-West Population InstituteThis paper outlines the aims and methods (rather than the results) of a study of population movement undertaken in the British Solomon Islands Protectorate between October 1965 and February 1967, and utilizes this experience for reflections upon population research throughout the insular Pacific. The actual field inquiry not only attempted to focus upon the reasons for the mobility of a non- literate population (a coast and an inland community on south coast Guadalcanal) but also aimed to identify definitions of population processes that were locally meaningful and to test the use of demographic procedures with those that are more traditionally anthropological and geographic.
The mobility literature (particularly of sub-Saharan Africa) which stimulated this research is described, the field methods outlined, and some results presented, Based upon this experience, more general observations are made about procedures for collecting, at the territorial level, detailed and more accurate information concerning non-literate populations; and about the potential in mobility research for team investigations and cross-disciplinary orientations. In turn these observations underline the conclusion that, unless the science of population is to become culture- bound, the demography of non-literate societies warrants greater attention than it has been, thus far accorded.Item type: Item , Measuring mortality : a self-teaching guide to elementary measures(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-05) Palmore, James A.; East-West Population InstituteItem type: Item , Fertility differentials of Japanese women in Japan, Hawaii, and California(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-05) Matsumoto, Yoshiharu Scott; Park, Chai Bin; Bell, Bella Z.; East-West Population InstituteA unique opportunity for a study on the fertility patterns of Japanese women residing in different geographical areas is afforded by the coordinated tripartite survey on the "Study of Shifts in Cancer Risks for Specific Sites among Japanese Migrants" conducted in Japan, Hawaii, and California, This cancer study is sponsored by the U. S. National Cancer Institute, the Tohoku University School of Medicine (Sendai, Japan), the University of Hawaii School of Public Health, and the California Department of Public Health, The study's overall purpose is the evaluation of whether health problems of the Japanese change as they adapt to other social and cultural surroundings. Data have been derived from personal interviews of Japanese persons 35 years and over in representative household samples in the states of Hawaii and California, and the prefectures of Miyagi and Hiroshima.
The interviews, carried out as part of the larger study of changes in cancer risks among Japanese migrants to the United States, include basic information on fertility characteristics on selected samples of the Japanese ever-married female population in Japan and the United States. The present report focuses on the comparison of married Japanese women residing in four different geographical locations to examine if any marked variations exist in their fertility patterns.Item type: Item , Dual record systems for measurement of fertility change(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-04) Wells, H. Bradley (Henry Bradley); East-West Population InstituteDual record systems for measuring vital rates are emerging as statistical systems in their own right. Such systems are self-checking and hence lend themselves to experimentation, the study of measurement errors and the production of data of known quality. The major disadvantage is the higher cost, as compared with single systems, due -to the complexity of administration and the relatively high ratio of well-trained personnel required. The total error of estimates from dual systems may be considerably lower than in a single system with a much larger sample and hence more efficient. Countrywide dual systems in Pakistan, India, Thailand, Turkey and Liberia have experimented with several types of subsystems. On the basis of this experience and other experiments with measuring vital rates it is clear that much research is still required. Within dual systems many questions such as the following require answers: sample design in time and space, the best subsystems, matching procedures, boundary errors, the effect of quasi-independent subsystems on estimates, and methods of analysis. Features particularly essential to dual systems include: (1) tight and current field identification system in sample areas including maps, and a household numbering system, (2) a subsystem for continuous registration of vital events in sample areas, (3) a subsystem of panel surveys covering at least a subsample of the population in the registration sample, and (4) sound procedures for matching registration and survey events, In addition to providing better quality data dual systems provide a framework for evaluating different single systems for measuring fertility and mortality.Item type: Item , Interpersonal communication and the diffusion of family planning in West Malaysia(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-03) Palmore, James A.; Hirsch, Paul Morris; Ariffin bin Marzuki; East-West Population InstituteUsing data from a 1966-1967 probability sample of West Malaysian married women 15-44 years of age, the paper analyzes the characteristics of women who were active in diffusing information about family planning, The wife's age and her parity, her educational attainment, her race, her present residence (urban-rural), and whether or not she wanted more children were significantly related to opinion leadership in bivariate tables. However, these relationships appeared to be substantial mainly because these social and demographic characteristics were highly related to whether the wife participated in discussions about family planning with other women. Among women who did participate in such discussions, the social and demographic variables were not so substantially related to opinion leadership. In fact, the critical variables for opinion leadership appeared to be participation in the discussions, greater knowledge of family planning, and a higher level of family planning use.
An attempt is also made to assess the effect of communication on the adoption of family planning among women in the sample.Item type: Item , A survey of social-psychological variables used in studies of family planning(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-02) Rosario, Florangel Z. (Florangel Zuleta); East-West Population InstituteSocial-psychological variables such as perception (of the population problem, of family planning and others' opinions) and motivation are critical factors in the diffusion of family planning. This paper synthesizes findings from several crosscultural studies of these variables, suggests hypotheses for future research, and discusses problems of data-gathering.
Internal patterns are found to exist in relatively modern societies, in the same way that traditional societies manifest typical cognitive, attitudinal and behavioral patterns. The concept of diffusion, as related to "modernizing--traditional" and "subculture" typologies, is shown to be a more suitable strategy in the study of social-psychological variables.
The limitations of the survey method are pointed out, and the use of less structured techniques, such as participants' observations and unobtrusive psychometric measures, are suggested.Item type: Item , Methods of demographic estimation for statistically underdeveloped areas(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1971-01) Demeny, Paul George; East-West Population InstituteThe two main new approaches to generate data--surveys and sample registration--do not exhaust the full range of possible sources of information on demographic processes that may be considered as alternatives to the traditional census and vital registration system. Continuous population registers, longitudinal panel studies, or intensive observation of small populations utilizing all available tools for recording demographic facts (as is customary for instance in intensive anthropological field work), are additional examples for non-conventional approaches to obtain demographic data. But, because of their cost, their overly specialized nature, or because of their narrow range of applicability, they are of limited interest as possible solutions for a pervasive absence of adequate demographic statistics. Accordingly, the discussion that follows is organized under two main headings. One examines methods based on cross-sectional data, either from censuses or from surveys, or from both, while the other focuses on methods utilizing data collected in sample registration areas, typically linked together with census-type recording systems in various ways. Preceding these two sections is a discussion of some general demographic models that are utilized extensively in applying either of the two unconventional approaches.Item type: Item , Linkages of intrinsic to age-specific rates(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1970-12) Keyfitz, Nathan; East-West Population InstituteWe know that changes in birth rates at particular ages of women affect the overall increase of a population, its age distribution, and other features. Our object here is to ascertain the amount of the effect. For example, a fall in the age-specific birth rate of women aged 40-44 will tend to raise the mean age of the population; the paper finds an expression for the fraction of a year by which the mean age is raised by a given alteration in the birth rate to women aged x. We implicitly compare two populations, the same in all other respects but the age under study, in which fertility and mortality remain constant for a long period of time. The formulas show by how much the long-term projections differ if births differ at one age of women only and deaths are identical.
The effects of changes in death rates at particular ages are more pervasive, because mortality acts through the life table numbers surviving to the several ages, and a change in the age specific rate at a particular age thus affects all subsequent ages. The paper finds expressions for the effects of changes in death rates analogous to those for the changes in birth rates. The Appendix Table presents the results in one place for births and deaths.
To illustrate and verify some of the formulas a computer program was run, projecting the population of Mexico 1966 with observed rates, and with an increase in the deaths at ages 25-29 and 50-54.