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ItemThe demographic situation in the Republic of Korea(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1973-12)Recent demographic developments in the Republic of Korea—including changes in the population growth rate, mortality, fertility, and distribution—are documented by means of Census and survey data. A sharp decline in mortality since the end of the Korean War and a dramatic decline in fertility in the 1960s have produced an unusually rapid demographic transition accompanied by important socioeconomic changes. Causes and consequences of the transition are examined, in particular the phenomenon of rural-to-urban migration, and a projection of population size and distribution is made for the year 2000
ItemThe demographic situation in Indonesia(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1973-12)Current fertility, mortality, and migration patterns in Indonesia are described, together with some background material necessary for context. Preliminary estimates of fertility based on the Cho-Grabill "own-children" method applied to the 1971 Census results are presented, indicating an average total fertility rate for Indonesia of about 5.5. Birth rates are substantially lower in Java than in the other major islands, despite Java's younger age at marriage. Mortality appears to be generally high relative to neighboring countries, and there is evidence of lesser infant and greater adult mortality than is found in Coale-Demeny model patterns. Serious age reporting errors and possibilities of underenumeration prevent its accurate measurement, however. Rural-urban migration has been notably slow in the 1961s, with the exception of Jakarta and a few provincial cities servicing extractive industries.
Factors likely to influence trends in vital rates over the next decade include a rising mean age at marriage, continued large cohorts entering peak ages of reproduction and mobility, improved economic conditions in urban areas, and a vigorous clinic-based family planning program in Java and Bali. Serious problems of ecological degradation already evident in rural Java and significant shifts in economic arrangements affecting access to the harvest are also likely to have demographic repercussions.
ItemRepresentation of national and regional political units in a computerized world future model(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-10)Recent, highly-publicized computerized world future models developed by Jay W. Forrester and by Donella H. Meadows and others have formed the basis for suggested policies that would require major changes in international and national legal rules. These models make no attempt, however, to incorporate the existing world legal structure.
The author has rewritten one of these models, that by Forrester, to incorporate variables representing legal controls of international movement of population, natural resources, food, and pollution. Results from computer runs with this revised model suggest that a wide range of national policies on such questions as population growth, economic growth, and national resource usage may be compatible with world equilibrium.
Appendices to the paper present FORTRAN computer programs for both the original model and the author's extended model.
ItemSpatial patterns of socio-economic structure and change in the Philippines, 1939-60(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-08)The present study examines aspects of the uneven spatial distribution of modernization and development within the Philippines over the period 1939-60. Factor analysis is applied to comparable provincial data from the 1939 and 1960 censuses to study variations in the relationships among demographic, socio-cultural, and economic characteristics. More specifically the objectives of the study are (1) to uncover the patterns of association, that is, the underlying factors or dimensions, among selected socio-economic characteristics of Philippine provinces in 1939 and again in 1960; (2) to examine the stability or instability of the dimensions extracted from 1939 data compared with those extracted from the 1960 data; (3) to discover existing patterns of interdependency among the changes in socioeconomic characteristics of provinces from 1939 to 1960; (4) to reveal areal associations and patterns of development and change in 1939, 1960, and for the period 1939-60.
The paper then is essentially empirical and inductive. However, while the study has not been specifically designed to deductively examine existing spatial development models, some of its findings obviously bear on regional inequality models and such related concepts as economic dualism, growth poles and modernization. The inclusion in the analysis of various population characteristics permits us to examine to some extent how changes in these characteristics are associated with other changes in the Philippine development process.
ItemLegal regulation of population movement to, from, and within the United States : a survey of current law and constitutional limitations(Honolulu, HI : East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1972-06)A wide variety of federal and state laws affect population movement both directly and indirectly. However the powers of both the federal and state governments to regulate population movement have been severely restricted by a series of Supreme Court decisions interpreting the Constitution.
The federal government has and exercises extensive powers for the regulation of international immigration. State governments, however, may only regulate immigration to the extent powers are delegated by the federal government.
An increasingly strong constitutional doctrine of a right to travel is emerging. This doctrine greatly limits both federal and state power to directly limit population movement. Existing state legislation penalizing population movement by discriminating against new residents cannot stand constitutional scrutiny.
Considerable scope does exist within constitutional limits for both federal and state regulation movement. However such regulation must avoid both direct restriction upon the right to travel and discrimination in favor of long-term state residents.