The demographic situation in Indonesia

Abstract

Current fertility, mortality, and migration patterns in Indonesia are described, together with some background material necessary for context. Preliminary estimates of fertility based on the Cho-Grabill "own-children" method applied to the 1971 Census results are presented, indicating an average total fertility rate for Indonesia of about 5.5. Birth rates are substantially lower in Java than in the other major islands, despite Java's younger age at marriage. Mortality appears to be generally high relative to neighboring countries, and there is evidence of lesser infant and greater adult mortality than is found in Coale-Demeny model patterns. Serious age reporting errors and possibilities of underenumeration prevent its accurate measurement, however. Rural-urban migration has been notably slow in the 1961s, with the exception of Jakarta and a few provincial cities servicing extractive industries.Factors likely to influence trends in vital rates over the next decade include a rising mean age at marriage, continued large cohorts entering peak ages of reproduction and mobility, improved economic conditions in urban areas, and a vigorous clinic-based family planning program in Java and Bali. Serious problems of ecological degradation already evident in rural Java and significant shifts in economic arrangements affecting access to the harvest are also likely to have demographic repercussions.