Probabilistic approach for tsunami inundation mapping
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2008
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University of Hawaii at Manoa
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A probabilistic approach is necessary to assess the future tsunami hazard for a given shoreline. Given the complicated nature of tsunamis, it seems intuitive that it is best to perform statistical analysis considering both the generation and far-field effects of a tsunami in a single process. It is important not to mix the frequency-of-occurrence distributions or historic runup data from multiple sources in order to make up for a small sample size, although this is a common approach of current probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The method presented in this thesis generates events of equal probability of occurrence by systematic sampling of the source extremal distribution curve and uses a two-dimensional model to propagate the resulting tsunamis across the ocean and compute the inundation on land. The model results are then compiled so an inundation limit with a desired return period can be computed. This methodology is demonstrated with a case study considering the Alaska-Aleutian Seismic Zone (AASZ) and the far-field location on the north shore of Oahu, where historic runup data is used for model calibration. This method yields probabilistic inundation estimates without mixing runup data from different tsunamigenic sources or simulating incomplete data records. This method is uniquely expandable, and can include additional tsunami source locations and mechanisms, each with its own unique probabilistic distribution. This probabilistic approach to tsunami inundation mapping will be very useful for hazard assessments and generating quantifiable results for mitigation efforts.
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Theses for the degree of Master of Science (University of Hawaii at Manoa). Ocean and Resources Engineering; no. 4298
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