Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

dc.contributor.author Saksena, Sumeet
dc.contributor.author Fox, Jefferson
dc.contributor.author Epprecht, Michael
dc.contributor.author Tran, Chinh C.
dc.contributor.author Castrence, Miguel
dc.contributor.author Nong, Duong
dc.contributor.author Spencer, James
dc.contributor.author Nguyen, Lam
dc.contributor.author Finucane, Melissa
dc.contributor.author Vien, Tran Duc
dc.contributor.author Wilcox, Bruce
dc.date.accessioned 2015-04-17T03:17:58Z
dc.date.available 2015-04-17T03:17:58Z
dc.date.issued 2014-10
dc.description For more about the East-West Center, see <a href="http://www.eastwestcenter.org/">http://www.eastwestcenter.org/</a>
dc.description.abstract Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition--peri-urbanization--was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk.
dc.format.extent 30 p.
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10125/35845
dc.language.iso en-US
dc.publisher Honolulu, HI: East-West Center
dc.relation.ispartofseries East-West Center working papers. Environment, population and health series ; no. 6
dc.subject.lcsh Urbanization
dc.subject.lcsh Land use, Urban
dc.subject.lcsh Zoonoses
dc.subject.lcsh Avian influenza - Risk factors
dc.title Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases
dc.type Report
dc.type.dcmi Text
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