Music Consumption in 2070: Four Alternative Futures

Abstract

Music consumption is impacted by various factors such as policy, technology, society, culture, industry structure, sociocultural factors, and more. The future of music consumption is not set in stone. Music consumption will be affected by key uncertainties such as possible changes in major players in the music industries and adjacent industries, regulation of technologies, payment models, participatory cultures, and emerging technologies. Using a futures studies approach, this thesis explores potential futures of music consumption by identifying key trends and uncertainties. This thesis first provides a background on the current state of music consumption by introducing discussions about the value of music, the music industries, music copyright, technology’s impact on recorded music consumption, music recommendation systems, platforms, audiences, participatory culture, fans, communities, live music and livestreaming. Afterwards, an environmental scan identifies key uncertainties which will impact the future of music consumption. These uncertainties revolve around topics such as data collection, content recommendations, advertisements/endorsements, monopoly, payment models, platform visibility, participation, fans, communities, the embedded infosphere, and applications of brain- computer interfaces and multisensory technologies within music-related experiences. Lastly, this thesis envisions possible alternative futures based on the current state of music consumption and the key uncertainties identified in the environmental scan. Each of the presented alternative future scenarios falls under one of Jim Dator’s four futures archetypes: continuation, collapse, discipline, and transformation.