A First Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Efficiency and Reliability of Solar and Hydro Energy Sources

Abstract

Climate change impacts our electric power system in several ways, affecting both the load and generation. Here we investigate one part of these impacts, the effect of climate change on the supply of renewable energy. Analyzing 60 years of data, climate change is found to impact both the total supply available and its variability. This impact is found to vary significantly with location. Here we focus on and compare two disparate locations, Palma de Mallorca in the Balearic Islands and Cordova, Alaska. Using novel metrics, this analysis demonstrates the feasibility of a process to evaluate the changing needs for energy storage as well as the ability to evaluate the impact on grid reliability regarding both penetration of the increasing renewable resources and changes in the variability of the resource. This framework can be used to quantify the impact on both transmission grids and microgrids and can guide possible mitigation paths.