Crafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel

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dc.contributor.authorMueller, Roland M.
dc.contributor.authorThoring, Katja
dc.contributor.authorKlöckner, Hermann W.
dc.contributor.authorLarsen, Kai
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-26T18:50:06Z
dc.date.available2023-12-26T18:50:06Z
dc.date.issued2024-01-03
dc.identifier.doi10.24251/HICSS.2023.774
dc.identifier.isbn978-0-9981331-7-1
dc.identifier.other226475bf-0301-47c8-8a6a-7224dce46411
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10125/107160
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the 57th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectInforming Research: Engaging with Futures
dc.subjectartificial intelligence
dc.subjectchatgpt
dc.subjectdelphi method
dc.subjectfuturology
dc.subjectscenario planning
dc.titleCrafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel
dc.typeConference Paper
dc.type.dcmiText
dcterms.abstractThis paper examines the potential of ChatGPT to enhance the established Delphi method by providing additional AI-infused expertise. We investigated several aspects of the Delphi method independently: the integration of abstract AI-infused expertise perspectives, the generation of an AI “clone” (digital twin) of a human expert, the rating of scenarios through AI, and the capability of AI to iterate future scenarios and to provide qualitative feedback. The findings suggest that AI systems can augment a Delphi panel by providing new perspectives but cannot replace individual human experts and their respective expertise. The insights shall inform other researchers who want to conduct hybrid Delphi studies with AI-infused expertise. In that sense, with this paper, we aim to lay the foundation for a hybrid Delphi study method and suggest actionable recommendations.
dcterms.extent10 pages
prism.startingpage6458

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Informing Research: Engaging with Futures