Crafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel

dc.contributor.author Mueller, Roland M.
dc.contributor.author Thoring, Katja
dc.contributor.author Klöckner, Hermann W.
dc.contributor.author Larsen, Kai
dc.date.accessioned 2023-12-26T18:50:06Z
dc.date.available 2023-12-26T18:50:06Z
dc.date.issued 2024-01-03
dc.identifier.isbn 978-0-9981331-7-1
dc.identifier.other 226475bf-0301-47c8-8a6a-7224dce46411
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10125/107160
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Proceedings of the 57th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject Informing Research: Engaging with Futures
dc.subject artificial intelligence
dc.subject chatgpt
dc.subject delphi method
dc.subject futurology
dc.subject scenario planning
dc.title Crafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel
dc.type Conference Paper
dc.type.dcmi Text
dcterms.abstract This paper examines the potential of ChatGPT to enhance the established Delphi method by providing additional AI-infused expertise. We investigated several aspects of the Delphi method independently: the integration of abstract AI-infused expertise perspectives, the generation of an AI “clone” (digital twin) of a human expert, the rating of scenarios through AI, and the capability of AI to iterate future scenarios and to provide qualitative feedback. The findings suggest that AI systems can augment a Delphi panel by providing new perspectives but cannot replace individual human experts and their respective expertise. The insights shall inform other researchers who want to conduct hybrid Delphi studies with AI-infused expertise. In that sense, with this paper, we aim to lay the foundation for a hybrid Delphi study method and suggest actionable recommendations.
dcterms.extent 10 pages
prism.startingpage 6458
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