Crafting Future Scenarios with the Help of AI: Potentials of a Hybrid Delphi Expert Panel

Date

2024-01-03

Contributor

Advisor

Department

Instructor

Depositor

Speaker

Researcher

Consultant

Interviewer

Narrator

Transcriber

Annotator

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Volume

Number/Issue

Starting Page

6458

Ending Page

Alternative Title

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of ChatGPT to enhance the established Delphi method by providing additional AI-infused expertise. We investigated several aspects of the Delphi method independently: the integration of abstract AI-infused expertise perspectives, the generation of an AI “clone” (digital twin) of a human expert, the rating of scenarios through AI, and the capability of AI to iterate future scenarios and to provide qualitative feedback. The findings suggest that AI systems can augment a Delphi panel by providing new perspectives but cannot replace individual human experts and their respective expertise. The insights shall inform other researchers who want to conduct hybrid Delphi studies with AI-infused expertise. In that sense, with this paper, we aim to lay the foundation for a hybrid Delphi study method and suggest actionable recommendations.

Description

Keywords

Informing Research: Engaging with Futures, artificial intelligence, chatgpt, delphi method, futurology, scenario planning

Citation

Extent

10 pages

Format

Geographic Location

Time Period

Related To

Proceedings of the 57th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

Related To (URI)

Table of Contents

Rights

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Rights Holder

Local Contexts

Email libraryada-l@lists.hawaii.edu if you need this content in ADA-compliant format.