Environmental Change, Vulnerability, and Governance [Working Papers]

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10125/3159

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Electrifying North Korea : bringing power to underserved marginal populations in the DPRK
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2014-04) Forster, Alex S.
North Korea is an extremely isolated and impoverished nation. While its political elites are able to enjoy some degree of luxury in spite of UN sanctions, the lower classes suffer from shortages of food, electricity, healthcare, and other basic needs. Many of the lower class and fringe populations reside in rural areas with limited infrastructure, and rely on black markets to survive. Their situation could be dramatically improved if electricity could be provided to their communities to power heating, health clinics, manufacturing facilities, fertilizer plants, and water pumps for agricultural irrigation. Given the unpredictability of the North Korean regime and its known hostility toward the US, any action to benefit the marginal populations there must be done in such a way that the regime can get no benefit. By erecting small wind power arrays connected only to local microgrids, rural residents will benefit without the regime being able to divert the resources. Homes can be warmed in the harsh winters, farmland can be returned to productivity, economic output can be boosted, and health services can be dramatically improved. Resultant environmental benefits will include slowing deforestation and river siltation, which exacerbates floods, will be reduced. This proposal outlines the needs of the North Korean people, the justifications for helping them, and the specific steps that should be taken by both the public and private sectors to reduce the scale of the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The shadow of urbanization : the periurban interface of five Indian cities in transition
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2014-01) Narain, Vishal; Banerjee, Poulomi; Anand, Pooja
Periurban areas refer to areas at the periphery of cities. They provide the land and water resources needed for urban expansion, while receiving urban wastes. This paper describes the process of periurban expansion around five major Indian cities, namely, Patna, Guwahati, Chandigarh, Chennai and Ahmedabad. These cities have expanded under the current regime of neo-liberal policies, infrastructure development and real estate growth. As spaces in transition, periurban areas around these cities have absorbed much of the migrant population. However, the cities have grown beyond the carrying capacity; this has caused the ecological foot-print of the cities to spill over into the peripheries. While conventional approaches to urban planning and rural development create a dichotomy between rural and urban areas, the concept of periurban raises questions both about the sustainability and equity dimensions of urban expansion, also raising issues of the politics of urbanization.
A research strategy for the Pacific climate information system
(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2010-11) Finucane, Melissa L.; Marra, John; Weyman, James C.
Based on a selective review of the outcomes of previous meetings, conferences, workshops, and papers highlighting climate variability and change research needs in the Pacific region, this paper presents a research strategy for increasing understanding of climate-society linkages in Pacific Island settings. The strategy provides a synopsis of emerging research goals and illustrative activities that users can rank according to their priorities. Grounded in the framework of the Pacific Climate Information System, the strategy is comprised of three key research elements: (1) research to enhance understanding of regional climate risks and consequences; (2) research to improve decision support and risk communication; and (3) research to improve climate adaptation capacity. We envision the strategy will contribute to enhanced understanding of scientific and societal knowledge of climate processes and their impacts and stakeholder capacity for building sustainable island communities for future generations.
In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? : a roadmap to 2050
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2009-06) Zhang, ZhongXiang
Given that China is already the world's largest carbon emitter and its emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its industrialization and urbanization, there is no disagreement that China eventually needs to take on binding greenhouse gas emissions caps. However, the key challenges are when that would occur and what credible interim targets China would need to take on during this transition period. This paper takes these challenges by mapping out the roadmap for China's specific commitments towards 2050. Specifically, I suggest that China make credible quantified domestic commitments during the second commitment period, commit to voluntary no lose targets during the third commitment period, adopt binding carbon intensity targets during the fourth commitment period, and take on binding emissions caps starting the fifth commitment period and aimed for the global convergence of per capita emissions by 2050. These proposed commitments should be viewed as China's political commitments, not necessarily China's actual takings in the ongoing international climate change negotiations, in order to break the current political impasse between developed and developing countries. It is worthwhile China considering these political commitments either on its own or through a joint statement with U.S. and other major countries, provided that a number of conditions can be worked out. These commitments are principles, and still leave flexibility for China to work out details as international climate change negotiations move on. But in the meantime, they signal well ahead that China is seriously committed to addressing climate change issues, alleviate, if not completely remove, U.S. and other industrialized country's concerns about when China would get in, an indication that the whole world has long awaited from China, help U.S. to take on long-expected emissions commitments, and thus pave the way for reaching an international climate agreement at Copenhagen.
Interregional burden-sharing of greenhouse gas mitigation in the United States
(Honolulu, HI: East-West Center, 2004-09) Rose, Adam; Zhang, ZhongXiang
Emissions trading is an attractive candidate for implementing greenhouse gas mitigation, because it can promote both efficiency and equity. This paper analyzes the interregional impacts of alternative allocations of carbon dioxide emission permits within the U.S. The analysis is performed with the aid of a nonlinear programming model for ten EPA Regions and for six alternative permit distribution formulas. The reason that various alternatives need to be considered is that there is no universal consensus on the best definition of equity. Advance knowledge of absolute and relative regional economic impacts provides policy-makers with a stronger basis for making the choice. The analysis yields several useful results. First, the simulations indicate that no matter how permits are allocated, this policy instrument can substantially reduce the cost of greenhouse gas mitigation for the U.S. in comparison to a system of fixed quotas for each of its regions. Interestingly, the welfare impacts of several of the allocation formulas differ only slightly despite the large differences in their philosophical underpinnings. Also, the results for some equity criteria differ greatly from their application in the international domain. For example, the Egalitarian (per capita) criterion results in the relatively greatest cost burden being incurred by one of the regions of the U.S. with the lowest per capita income.
The World Bank's Prototype Carbon Fund and China
(Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, 2004) Zhang, ZhongXiang
As the first global carbon fund, the World Bank's Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) aims to catalyze the market for project-based greenhouse gas emission reductions while promoting sustainable development and offering a learning-by-doing opportunity to its stakeholders. Since the inception in 2000, the PCF has engaged in a dialogue with China to get it to sign up as a host country, because the World Bank and other international and bilateral donors expect great potential of the clean development mechanism (CDM) in China and feel the significant need for building CDM capacity in China to enable it to gain more insight into the CDM and increase its capacity to initiate and undertake CDM projects. This paper first discusses why China had hesitated to sign up as a host country of PCF projects until late 2003. Then the paper explains what has led China to endorse the PCF projects. The paper ends with discussions on the implications of the PCF's offering prices for the emerging global carbon market.
Why did the energy intensity fall in China's industrial sector in the 1990s? : the relative importance of structural change and intensity change
(Honolulu, Hawaii : East-West Center, 2003) Zhang, ZhongXiang
There have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in China's energy consumption in the 1980s. However, no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s. This article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in China's industrial sector in the 1990s, based on the data sets of value added and end-use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual. Our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity, indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2-digit level was still maintained in the 1990s. This conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of China's GDP may be overestimated.
Towards an effective implementation of CDM projects in China
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2004) Zhang, ZhongXiang
With the already huge and growing amount of greenhouse gas emissions and a great deal of low-cost abatement options available, China is widely expected as the world's number one host country of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects. But, making this potential a reality represents a significant challenge for China, because there has been a general lack of awareness by both the Chinese government and business communities, institutional structure, and implementation strategy. This has raised great concern about China's ability to compete internationally for CDM projects and exploit fully its CDM potential. This paper aims to address how CDM projects will be effectively implemented in China by examining the major CDM capacity building projects in China with bilateral and multilateral donors, the treatment of low-cost, non-priority CDM projects, and how a system for application, approval and implementation of CDM projects is to be set up in China and what roles the main institutional actors are going to play in the system. We conclude that these capacity building assistances, the establishment of streamlined and transparent CDM procedures and sound governance, and the lessons learned and experience gained from the implementation of the CDM project in Inner Mongolia and the two Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) projects will make China well positioned to take advantage of CDM opportunities. Moreover, in order to further exploit its CDM potential, we recommend that China should well define its sustainable development objective of the CDM, disseminate CDM knowledge to local authorities and project developers as sectorally and geographically wide as possible, and get at least two domestic legal entities accredited as designated operational entities. By taking these ongoing capacity building projects and the recommended actions, and gaining experience from real practice, it is thus expected that a much greater percentage of carbon credits is likely to come from CDM projects in China over the next several years as the Kyoto Protocol enters into force.
Electric power grid interconnection in Northeast Asia
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2005) Yun, Won-Cheol; Zhang, ZhongXiang
Despite its regional closeness, energy cooperation in Northeast Asia has remained unexplored. However, this situation appears to be changing. The government of South Korea seems to be very enthusiastic for power grid interconnection between the Russian Far East and South Korea to overcome difficulties in finding new sites for building power facilities to meet its need for increased electricity supplies. This paper analyzes the feasibility of this electric power grid interconnection route. The issues addressed include electricity market structures; the prospects for electric power industry restructuring in the Russian Federation and South Korea; the political issues related to North Korea; the challenges for the governments involved and the obstacles anticipated in moving this project forward; project financing and the roles and concerns from multilateral and regional banks; and institutional framework for energy cooperation. While there are many technical issues that need to resolve, we think that the great challenge lies in the financing of this commercial project. Thus, the governments of the Russian Federation and South Korea involved in the project need to foster the development of their internal capital markets and to create confidence with international investors. To this end, on energy side, this involves defining a clear energy policy implemented by independent regulators, speeding up the already started but delayed reform process of restructuring electric power industry and markets, and establishing a fair and transparent dispute resolution mechanism in order to reduce non-commercial risks to a minimum. The paper argues that establishing a framework for energy cooperation in this region will contribute positively towards that end, although views differ regarding its specific form. Finally, given that North Korea has a crucial transit role to play and faces a very unstable political situation, it is concluded that moving the project forward needs to be contingent on a resolution of North Korea's nuclear crisis.
Commuters' exposure to particulate matter and carbon monoxide in Hanoi, Vietnam : a pilot study
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2007) Saksena, Sumeet
Urban air pollution continues to be a major problem in Asian cities. Emissions from vehicles are the major contributor to deteriorating air quality in these cities. Most studies of air pollution in cities have concentrated on urban background air quality and its effects on people outside vehicles. Background levels are usually measured on roof-tops of buildings. However, scientific evidence suggests that road users of all kinds are exposed to higher levels of air pollution than the background data might suggest. Furthermore, the evidence indicates marked differences in the exposure levels of travelers by different modes. Often counter-intuitive results have been obtained. Research done in the U.S. and Europe is not easily adaptable to Asia, given the unique modes of transportation in Asia, such as two-wheelers and highly used bus systems. In Asian cities the use of diesel is much higher than in the west and the implications of this for actual human exposure to air pollution is not known. A pilot study was conducted to get preliminary estimates of personal exposures to particulate matter (PM10) and carbon monoxide (CO) while traveling on four major roads in Hanoi, Vietnam. Investigators carried lightweight portable real-time measurement devices while traveling on buses, cars, mobikes, and while walking, to study the effect of mode of transport, route, rush-hour, and air-conditioning on the exposure levels. The study is unique in terms of its special focus on users of two-wheelers and particulate matter. The survey has clearly provided evidence of the extremely high levels of pollution experienced by commuters, thereby justifying the need for a larger and more comprehensive assessment of human exposures and the factors that influence exposures.
Daily exposure to air pollution in indoor, outdoor, and in-vehicle micro-environments : a pilot study in Delhi
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2003) Prasad, Raj Kumar; Ravi Shankar, V.; Saksena, Sumeet
Exposure of infants to outdoor and indoor air pollution in low-income urban areas : a case study of Delhi
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2002) Saksena, Sumeet
Indoor air pollution is potentially a very serious environmental and public health problem in India. In poor communities, with the continuing trend in biofuel combustion coupled with deteriorating housing conditions, the problem will remain for some time to come. While to some extent the problem has been studied in rural areas, there is dearth of reliable data and knowledge about the situation in urban slum areas. The micro-environmental model was used for assessing daily-integrated exposure of infants and women to Respirable Suspended Particulates (RSP) in two slums of Delhi one in an area of high outdoor pollution and the other in a less polluted area. The study confirmed that indoor concentrations of RSP during cooking in kerosene using houses are usually lesser than that in wood using houses. However, the exposure due to cooking was not significantly different across the two groups. This was because, perhaps due to socio-economic reasons, kerosene-using women were found to cook for longer durations, cook inside more often, and that infants in such houses stayed in the kitchen for longer durations. It was observed that indoor background levels during the day and at nighttime can be exceedingly high. We speculate that this may have been due to re-suspension of dust, infiltration, unknown sources, or a combination of these factors. The outdoor RSP levels measured just outside the houses (near ambient) were not correlated with indoor background levels and were higher than those reported by the ambient air quality monitoring network at the corresponding stations. More importantly, the outdoor levels measured in this study not only underestimated the daily-integrated exposure, but were also poorly correlated with it.
Open trade with the U.S. without compromising Canada's ability to comply with it's Kyoto target
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2003) Zhang, ZhongXiang
There are no other two countries in the world that trade as much between themselves as do Canada and the U.S. It should thus come as no surprise that the U.S. deviation from international obligations makes Canadian industries' competitiveness (trade) concerns become even more rigorous. Against this background, this paper aims to address competitiveness concerns brought about by the different level playing field where Canadian industries face mandatory emissions constraints but U.S. industry' emissions are uncapped. To that end, the paper has addressed: 1) ways to deal with increased emissions in Canada as a result of increasing energy exports to the U.S.; 2) treatment of Canadian subsidiaries of U.S. multinationals in initially allocating Canada's assigned amount; 3) transferring Kyoto permits to non-Annex B Parties and transferring credits generated by non-Kyoto Parties to Kyoto Parties; 4) whether the U.S. bear any economic costs even when it faces no mandatory emissions targets during the first commitment period and why does Canada like to bear additional costs, if any, relative to the U.S. and the EU? and 5) what other measures might Canada take to further mitigate its trade concerns, in addition to taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms? If Canada and other like-minded countries invoke trade measures (to meet their Kyoto targets) against another WTO member but non-Kyoto Party like the U.S., would these measures be upheld if challenged by the U.S. under WTO? In so doing, attention is paid to the trade effects of the proposed measures to ensure their close consistency with the WTO rules, thus maximizing the WTO's contributions to sustainable development. It should be pointed out that although this study focuses on the U.S. and Canada, the results are of high policy relevance to Japan and the EU as well. The latter also have to address similar issues facing Canada, although to a lesser extent.
Public perceptions of urban air pollution with a focus on developing countries
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2007) Saksena, Sumeet
Understanding public perception and attitudes toward air quality and regulation is critical for successful citizen involvement as shifts toward new technologies and management alternatives take place. While urban air pollution continues to be a major risk in most parts of the world, very few studies and surveys have been conducted to systematically study public perceptions related to air pollution. Even fewer studies have focused on developing countries. This gap is critical because of the complex interaction between poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development in developing countries. A Pressure-State-Response framework is used to review studies of public perceptions of air pollution and knowledge gaps are identified. The paper highlights unique characteristics of urban areas in developing countries in the context of air pollution related perceptions.
Determining spatial patterns in Delhi's ambient air quality data using cluster analysis
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2002) Saksena, Sumeet; Joshi, Veena; Patil, R.S.
The purpose of this study was to examine the spatial patterns of ambient air quality in Delhi in the absence of extensive datasets needed for space-time modeling. A spatial classification was attempted on the basis of ambient air quality data of nine years (1998 is latest year for which published data was available) for three criteria pollutants nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and suspended particulate matter. A hierarchical agglomerative algorithm using the average linkage between groups method and the Euclidean distance metric was used. Cluster analysis indicated that until 1998, by and large, two distinct classes existed. The results of cluster analysis prompted an investigation of systematic biases in the monitored data. No statistically significant differences in the mean concentration of all pollutants were observed between stations belonging to different land-use types (residential and industrial). This fact would be useful, if and when the authorities consider modifying the network or expanding it in Delhi. The results also support the recommendation that Delhi have a uniform standard across all areas. This study has provided a methodology for Indian researchers, practitioners, and regulatory authorities to do an exploratory study of spatial patterns of air pollution and data quality issues in Indian cities using the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring System data.
Policy as warrant : environment and development in the Himalayan region
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2004) Blaikie, Piers M.; Muldavin, Joshua
Much of the environmental policy process in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush (HKH) region occurs at interfaces between international agendas promoted by various actors and national governments. These interfaces are frontiers of negotiation, skirmishing, and compromise, becoming a confused space for different development fashions (e.g. economic approaches to the environment, community natural resource management, democratization of policy making, the livelihoods approach or a retrenched and militarized "fortress conservation"). These fashions engage with a range of national policies, politics, administrative capacities and local institutions. There are many analytical tools for understanding policymaking and here we introduce the notion of "warrant" which combines four elements - the claim (based on, for example, scientific knowledge or human rights), the positionality of the warrant maker, its audience (as represented by actors in the political network) and the warrant outcome. It is considered alongside some other approaches to understanding the policy process and its usefulness is evaluated as an overarching framework for not only understanding but also improving the negotiation process in policy making. This is explained with illustrations of policy making in the Himalayan region. Lastly, elements of a future research agenda are proposed.
What do we know about carbon taxes? : an inquiry into their impacts on competitiveness and distribution of income
(Honolulu: East-West Center, 2003) Zhang, ZhongXiang; Baranzini, Andrea
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has set legally binding emissions targets for a basket of six greenhouse gases and timetables for industrialised countries. It has also incorporated three international flexibility mechanisms. However, the Articles defining the flexibility mechanisms carry wording that their use must be supplemental to domestic actions. This has led to the open debates on interpretations of these supplementarity provisions. Such debates ended at the resumed sixth Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, held in Bonn, July 2001, and at the subsequent COP-7 in Marrakesh, November 2001. The final wording in the Bonn Agreement, reaffirmed in the Marrakesh Accords, at least indicates that domestic policies will have an important role to play in meeting Annex B countries' emissions commitments. Carbon taxes have long been advocated because of their cost-effectiveness in achieving a given emissions reduction. In this paper, the main economic impacts of carbon taxes are assessed. Based on a review of empirical studies on existing carbon/energy taxes, it is concluded that competitive losses and distributive impacts are generally not significant and definitely less than often perceived. However, given the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention, future carbon taxes could have higher rates than those already imposed and thus the resulting economic impacts could be more acute. In this context, it has been shown that how to use the generated fiscal revenues will be of fundamental importance in determining the final economic impacts of carbon taxes. Finally, we briefly discuss carbon taxes in combination with other domestic and international instruments.

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