Ph.D. - Psychology

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A cross-validated comparison of models for the prediction of selection, academy performance, and job tenure of police officer recruits

(University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1978) Dibb, Gary Stewart ; Psychology

A review of research with police populations revealed, despite the ubiquity of psychological testing and the availability of a broad range of background information, a paucity of cross-validated studies relating pre-hiring variables to selection or later performance. Although the studies reporting cross-validation have been able to account for a large portion of criterion variance, the cross-validation coefficients have been unacceptably low. To investigate the possibility that the linear regression model was not the model best suited to this sort of prediction, a variety of alternate models were explored. The following four models were selected for comparison using data from a police setting: (1) the linear model. Despite indications of the superiority of ether models with analogue and random data, and in constrained applied settings, the linear model continues to be used in virtually all predictive contexts. (2) the multiple hurdles model. This model uses subjectively-defined cutoff points on each variable. The sum of "acceptable" scores is then correlated with the criterion in a cress-validation sample. (3) the conjunctive model. This model evaluates the individuals on the minimum of their scores (modeling the situation, for instance, in which interviewers look for shortcomings on which to disqualify applicants). (4) the equal weights model. This model weights each variable equally by summing the standard scores on each to yield a predictor variate. The personnel records of 225 consecutive police officer applicants in Honolulu were searched and all demographic data were coded. A subset of the officers was administered questionnaires measuring job satisfaction, cynicism, belligerency, authoritarianism, and anomie. The demographic and attitude variables were used as predictors of selection for training, recruit school performance, and job tenure. In addition, nine of the variables were selected for cross-validated comparison of the four models. In general, it was found that the variability observed in criterion data could be well-accounted for by the linear model using the predictor variables selected. Descriptions were made of "successes" and ''failures" by each criterion. Open cross-validation, however, the coefficients showed serious shrinkage, calling into question the validity of the linear model in prediction in police personnel settings. Comparison of the alternate predictive models was also fruitful. The expected mean squared (EMS) error ratio statistic was used to compare the models. For the prediction of selection, the linear regression and multiple hurdles models appeared to be most appropriate; for the prediction of academic performance, the multiple hurdles model alone was indicated; and for the prediction of job tenure, the unit weight model appears to be as promising as any of the more complex and sophisticated models.

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