Predicting Job Automation: What have we observed?

Date

2024-01-03

Contributor

Advisor

Department

Instructor

Depositor

Speaker

Researcher

Consultant

Interviewer

Narrator

Transcriber

Annotator

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Volume

Number/Issue

Starting Page

177

Ending Page

Alternative Title

Abstract

This research considers the ability to predict job automation based on two models. The first is a job model developed by Frey and Osborn and published in 2017. With 12000+ citations, that article appears to be the most highly cited academic article on predicting job automation. The second is a job automation model developed by Sampson and published in 2021. Coincidentally, both models were developed using the same U.S. Department of Labor database called O*Net, although using different data from different years. We use historical and current O*Net data to see how each model does in predicting observed changes in job automation over a wide range of jobs. A surprising finding is a negative correlation between degrees of automation for various jobs and changes in the degree of automation over the subsequent decade. This analysis leads to interesting theories about how job automation can be predicted, including an AI explanation.

Description

Keywords

AI and the Future of Work, job automation, technology forecasting

Citation

Extent

10 pages

Format

Geographic Location

Time Period

Related To

Proceedings of the 57th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

Related To (URI)

Table of Contents

Rights

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Rights Holder

Local Contexts

Email libraryada-l@lists.hawaii.edu if you need this content in ADA-compliant format.