The Prevalence, Economic, And Social Cost Of Methamphetamine Use; And The Effects Of Economic Recessions, Unemployment Rates, And Methamphetamine Arrests On Child Abuse In Hawai`i

Abstract

This is the first study in Hawai`i to estimate the prevalence and cost of methamphetamine (meth) use and the first investigation of the association of the impact of the periodicity of economic recessions, unemployment rates, and meth arrests on child abuse for the years 2007 to 2017, based on free, open source, and unrestricted data gathered for other purposes. The Hawai`i age-adjusted meth use prevalence was above the national estimates and ranged from 5,050 per 100,000 in 2007 to 3,387 per 100,000 in 2017, with a range from 3,114 to 5,219 per 100,000. The economic and social cost estimates were found to average between 41 to 68 billion dollars (range 15 to 105 billion dollars) when the lost potential from meth use and meth-related impacts were included. The quality-adjusted life-years approach, the Department of Transportation (DOT) Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (range 1-6, 6=death), and the DOT Value of a Statistical Life were included in the computation of lost potential of meth users and abused children using the RAND and state of Montana approach. When lost potential was not included, the cost of meth use was found to average between 120 to 173 million dollars per year (range 49 to 269 million dollars). The five factors for the cost estimates included: 1) treatment costs, 2) health burden, 3) child endangerment, 4) criminal justice costs, and 5) lost productivity attributable to meth. Meth arrests were found to lag unemployment rates by one year while child abuse lagged about four years behind unemployment and meth arrests, although the Granger causalities were not significant.