Economic impact of demographic change in Thailand, 1980-2015 : an application of the HOMES household forecasting model

Campbell, Burnham O.
Mason, Andrew
Pernia, Ernesto
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Honolulu, HI : East-West Center, published in cooperation with the Asian Development Bank; distributed by the University of Hawaii Press
Contents: 1. Demographic Change and the Thai Economy: An Overview / Andrew Mason, Burnham O. Campbell -- 2. Households and Their Characteristics / Andrew Mason, Mathana Phananiramai, Nipon Poapongsakorn -- 3. Labor Force and Wage Forecasts / John Bauer, Nipon Poapongsakorn, Naohiro Ogawa -- 4. Domestic Resource Mobilization: Analysis of Survey Data / Andrew Mason, Varai Woramontri, Robert M. Kleinbaum -- 5. Consumer expenditures / Andrew Mason, Varai Woramontri, Robert M. Kleinbaum -- Appendix 5.1. Estimation Results from Expenditure Analysis -- 6. The Education Sector: Enrollment Rates and Expenditures on Schooling / Mathana Phananiramai, Andrew Mason -- Appendix 6.1. Results from Survey Analysis -- Appendix 6.2. Costs of Education -- 7. Forecasts of Health Care Costs / Naohiro Ogawa, Nipon Poapongsakorn, Andrew Mason -- Appendix 7.1. Detailed Results: Statistical Analysis of Health Care Use, 1981 Socio-Economic Survey of Thailand -- 8. Housing Demand and Required Residential Construction / Burnham O. Campbel, Nipon Poapongsakorn -- Appendix 8.1. Estimation of Occupied Housing-Household Ratio (A[subscript f]) in Thailand -- Appendix 8.2. Estimated "Normal" Vacancy Ratios (A[subscript v1]) for Thailand -- Appendix 8.3. Estimated Withdrawal Rates (A[subscript w]) in Thailand -- Appendix 8.4. Detailed Age-of-Head Projections -- Appendix 8.5. Estimates of the Price of Housing -- Appendix A: Household Characteristics and Household Projections Using HOMES / Andrew Mason.
Summary: Thailand has experienced extraordinary demographic change and record-breaking economic growth during the last few decades. This study uses a recently developed projection model—HOMES, Household Model for Economic and Social Studies—to examine the changes and their continuing implications for six demographically sensitive sectors of the economy: education, health, housing, consumer expenditure, household saving, as well as labor force, employment, and wages. The relationship between demographic change and each of these economic sectors is assessed through extensive analysis of census and survey data collected during the 1980s. The study is a joint effort of the East-West Center's Program on Population, the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand, and the Asian Development Bank. For more about the East-West Center, see <a href=""></a>
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