Vulnerability of Communities Engaged in the Marine Economy in Hawaii to Inundation from Sea Level Rise

Abstract

Global sea level is rising as a result of melting polar caps and thermal expansion of seawater, and estimates range from an increase of 0.5 to 1.4 meters in the next century. The impacts of sea level rise (SLR) may be more severe in some regions, with sea level in the Pacific rising at three times the global mean since 1993. The resilience and adaptation capacity of communities that may be potentially impacted by SLR is related to both physical and social vulnerability. Physical vulnerability of a community can be measured in part by the risk of inundation from SLR, while the social vulnerability can be quantified in part by an analysis of population data and potential economic loss, using an index of Community Social Vulnerability Indicator (CSVI) scores. In this study, communities, defined at the Census County Division (CCD) level that are engaged in three sectors (eight industries) that represent the marine economy in Hawai‘i are examined to compare relative risk of inundation from SLR. The potential economic loss from the marine economy in these eight industries was estimated from catch landings at each port. It was found that Honolulu CCD accounts for over 60 percent of the revenue from the nine industries in the marine economy included in this analysis: Honolulu CCD The resilience and adaptation capacity of Honolulu CCD may therefore be important statewide. Honolulu CCD has relatively low CSVI scores, indicating a stable community and perhaps relatively high adaptation capacity. However, Honolulu CCD also shows medium-high risk to inundation from SLR, which may destroy ports and other key infrastructure and contribute to economic loss.