The West versus Beijing? : determinants of the UN Human Rights Council Vote (not) to debate human rights in Xinjiang
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2023-09
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Honolulu, HI : East-West Center
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Abstract
This paper addresses the factors shaping the vote of member states on the United Nations Human Rights
Council (UNHRC) regarding whether to debate human rights conditions in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of
China. Explanations for the UNHRC’s decision not to debate human rights in Xinjiang fall into three categories:
1) democracy, development, and human rights performance; 2) demographic factors; and 3) security and
economic ties to major powers, specifically the United States and China. Bayesian model averaging identifies
three factors as robust covariates of the Xinjiang UNHRC vote: liberal democratic domestic institutions, NATO
membership, and Chinese arms transfers. Countries with higher democracy scores and NATO member
countries were more likely to vote yes, while recipients of Chinese arms transfers were more likely to vote no. In
addition to its direct effect, liberal democracy exerts a significant indirect effect via its effect on Chinese arms
transfers, with less democratic countries more likely to receive Chinese arms. Participation in the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) is not a robust correlate when arms transfers are considered. Thus, our analysis lends support to
interpreting the vote as a reflection of wider competition between the United States and China but rejects part
of the conventional wisdom about how the two countries approach building and mobilizing coalitions in
international institutions.
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Keywords
United Nations Human Rights Council, Human rights - China - Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu, Yi dai yi lu (Initiative : China), United States - Relations - China, China - Relations - United States
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14 p.
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China
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East-West Center occasional papers ; no. 1
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