The Pace of Decarbonization: Can the Power System Transition Meet Climate Policy Goals?

Abstract

To reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the United States will need to simultaneously expand and decarbonize its electricity supply. Aggressive clean energy policies are necessary for the pace of the transition to meet this goal. Policymakers rely on computer modeling to inform decarbonization policies, even though the models were not developed for this purpose. This paper investigates the role of electricity modeling in climate policy design through a case study of Massachusetts. The analysis compares modeling results with recent energy projects in order to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of power sector modeling as a tool to inform policy making. The results show that modeling is useful for identifying technically feasible options and for comparing them based on quantifiable indicators. Models are incapable of identifying socially optimal solutions and estimating achievable pace of decarbonization, because they omit social factors that affect decarbonization goals.