Using Stakeholder Objectives to Inform Fire Resource Management in Waiʻanae Hawaiʻi

Abstract

Predicting the social and ecological impacts of natural resource management can be a highly technical task involving complex modeling. However, in many contexts, data and technical capacity are limited and system uncertainty is high. Moreover, affected people may distrust incomprehensible black box models and resist management recommendations stemming from these tools. Decision support tools that overcome these challenges can facilitate moving from planning to action. One such tool is Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM), a modeling process suited to complex situations where data are scarce and uncertainty is high. FCM relies on people’s perceptions to build a mental model of important system elements and their relative impacts on system dynamics and outcomes. FCM mental models then can be embedded in other decision support processes, such as Structured Decision Making (SDM), to rigorously evaluate the trade-offs across stakeholder objectives of alternative management options. In natural resource management applications, building FCM with stakeholders within a participatory SDM process has the distinct advantage of increasing transparency, representativeness, and trust. My research used FCM and SDM to investigate how fire impacts ecosystem services and how FCM and SDM can be used together to aid the decision-making process for one group of landowners in Waiʻanae, Hawaiʻi. Fires are increasing in frequency in Hawaiʻi, affecting increasingly more areas, people, and economic sectors. Land managers struggle to incorporate stakeholder knowledge and feedback when making fire management decisions. I used FCM to build mental models capable of evaluating the feedback between stakeholder values for ecosystem services and fire resource management actions. I embedded the FCM in an SDM process that directly involved stakeholders in the fire management decision process, specifically to identify values and potential management alternatives, and to transparently discuss consequences and trade-offs. Biodiversity, water resources, and spiritual experience were the most frequently raised ecosystem services valued by the stakeholders, and native species outplanting was the fire management activity that supported these ecosystem services the most. The methodologies used in this study can be applied to other decision scenarios to predict ecosystem service outcomes from alternative fire management strategies and improve the inclusion of stakeholder values in fire management decision-making. FCM provides an easy and cost-effective way to model consequences within an SDM process that is transparent and engages stakeholders.