Untamed Skies: The Science, Art, and Philosophy of Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

Meteorology, the science of weather, faces a technoscientific crisis in the twenty-first century. Although our understanding of the atmosphere continues to increase and weather forecasts continue to improve in accuracy, it is apparent that such scientific advances do not necessarily result in more lives saved or economic damage mitigated. Lives, livelihoods, and economies increasingly depend on weather forecasts, and while meteorology matures as a science alongside the technologies of remote sensing and numerical weather prediction, the discipline—as with the majority of modern physical sciences—remains entrenched in the assumption that technoscientific problems require only quantitative, empirical solutions. Yet, recent disasters like Hurricane Sandy and Super Typhoon Haiyan have demonstrated that the quantitative achievements of near-perfect forecasts are overshadowed by the complex challenges of communication, infrastructure, and decision-making, whereby the value and utility of a weather forecast differ not only in degree but also in kind. Through the lens of political and social theory and philosophy, this dissertation analyzes and critiques the positivistic epistemological basis upon which the institutions and methods of weather analysis and forecasting are built and proposes a new framework of transdisciplinarity that rethinks the physical-social dualities that have constrained the field of meteorology since its inception and have subsequently limited its potential to improve the human condition. Its public-facing character, widespread socioeconomic impact, and culture of amateur participation render the field of meteorology unique among the sciences yet also representative of the challenges that confront the science-society interface. Thus, from this meteorological crisis emerges an opportunity to reorient our broader scientific pursuits toward a new epistemology—a new way of scientifically thinking and doing—that more effectively unifies the objective and subjective elements of learning about our natural world to benefit the societies from whence they came.