Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack

Date
2019-01-08
Authors
Abdelgawad, Ahmed
Farstad, Tor-Edin
Gonzalez, Jose
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There is an extensive literature on modelling cascading effects in Critical Infrastructures (CIs). Concerning the cascading impacts of a cyber-attack upon other CIs, a detailed scenario analysis done by the Norwegian Directorate of Civil Protection concludes that a considerable impact could be achieved. However, the analysis admits that the probability of the attack would be very low, since it would require considerable expertise and resources. We argue that a smart attacker could exploit existing knowledge on cascading impacts to plan for perfidiously-timed cyber-attacks requiring low resources that would achieve a significant disruption of CIs. To illustrate our point, we build and simulate a highly-aggregated system dynamics model using estimates of disruptions effects across CIs taken from the literature.
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ICT and Artificial Intelligence for Crisis and Emergency Management, Collaboration Systems and Technologies, Cascading effects, Critical Infrastructures, Cyber-attack, Scenario analysis, System dynamics
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10 pages
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Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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