Predicting stock price and spread movements from news

Abstract

We explore several ways of using news articles and financial data to train neural network machine learning models to predict shock events in high-frequency market data, and aggregated shock episodes. We investigate the use of price movements in this context, and separately at a daily interval as well. We describe in detail how training sets are created from our data sources and how our machine learning models are trained. We find that pairing company-related news text with events or movements in financial time series proves less straight-forward than the literature would indicate. We discuss possible reasons for negative results, especially relating to the combination of minute-level news and millisecond-level market data.