Towards More Robust Uplift Modeling for Churn Prevention in the Presence of Negatively Correlated Estimation Errors
Files
Date
2020-01-07
Authors
Contributor
Advisor
Department
Instructor
Depositor
Speaker
Researcher
Consultant
Interviewer
Narrator
Transcriber
Annotator
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Volume
Number/Issue
Starting Page
Ending Page
Alternative Title
Abstract
The subscription economy is rapidly growing, boosting the importance of churn prevention. However, current true lift models often lead to poor outcomes in churn prevention campaigns. A vital problem seems to lie in instable estimations due to dynamic surrounding parameters such as price increases, product migrations, tariff launches of a competitor, or other events with uncertain consequences. The crucial challenge therefore is to make churn prevention measures more reliable in the presence of game-changing events. In this paper, we assume such events to be spatially finite in feature space, an assumption which leads to particularly bad churn prevention results if the selected customers lump in an affected region of the feature space. We then introduce novel methods which trade off uplift for reduced similarity in feature space when selecting customers for churn prevention campaigns and show that these methods can improve the robustness of uplift modeling.
Description
Keywords
Service Analytics, churn, decision trees, estimation errors, monte carlo, uplift modeling
Citation
Extent
8 pages
Format
Geographic Location
Time Period
Related To
Proceedings of the 53rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
Related To (URI)
Table of Contents
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Rights Holder
Local Contexts
Collections
Email libraryada-l@lists.hawaii.edu if you need this content in ADA-compliant format.