Investigation of Weather-related Aviation Accidents in Hawai‘i from 2003 – 2022

Abstract

Hawai‘i sees a significant number of aviation accidents each year, many of which are caused by weather. In an effort to mitigate such incidents in the future, weatherrelated aviation accidents in Hawai‘i between 2003 and 2022 are investigated. Adata catalog is created using National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports, NOAA weather charts, satellite imagery, atmospheric soundings, ASOS surface winds and NEXRAD radar data. It serves as the basis for the analysis of the days on which accidents occurred. A machine learning algorithm is implemented to compare accident days to non-accident days. It was found that most weather-related accidents take place during trade wind conditions and occur on O‘ahu, Moloka‘i and Maui. When looking at the monthly distribution, there is a higher incidence of accidents during the winter months. This is due to the fact that in addition to trade wind accidents, over 75% of cases that are linked to a synoptic-scale disturbance occur during this time. Atmospheric stability and windspeeds below the trade wind inversion are deemed most crucial when assessing atmospheric conditions for aviation safety. For fatal accidents, surface winds are observed to be a factor. Shearlines and troughs are associated with the majority of fatal weather-related accidents.