Potential Impact of Climate Change on the New Zealand Electricity Market
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2020-01-07
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The New Zealand electricity sector, dominated by hydroelectric generation, is arguably highly vulnerable to climate change. While the current generation resources seems adequate for maintaining security of supply, in the face of climate change, inflow patterns may change drastically and we need to reassess the adequacy of generation resources. We introduce a novel process for adjusting the historical inflow models to represent various climate scenarios. Our methodology is general and can be applied to any inflow data set coupled with potential climate scenarios, to produce post climate change inflow distributions. We will then use Dynamic Outer Approximation Sampling Algorithm (DOASA) with a distribution of historical inflows, as well as post climate change inflows, to balance the hydro-thermal generation scheduling for New Zealand. This, in turn, provides some insight into the possible effects of climate change on the electricity generation profile of New Zealand. We find that by 2035, at a national scale, the average price and generation is unlikely to be much affected, but the seasonality within these parameters will likely change. Within this near future horizon, we report that a reduction in annual thermal generation may be offset by an average increase in hydroelectric generation along the Waikato river hydro scheme. However, by 2100, we anticipate a degree of stress in the market due to an expected decrease in water availability. In the worst case, we see that thermal generation will increase to ensure the security of supply, and higher prices may be observed.
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Policy, Markets, and Computation
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8 pages
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Proceedings of the 53rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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