Strategies in the Game of Mafia

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2021-12-07

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6

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1

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Mafia is a game that involves two opposing groups, the vanilla townies and the mafia, that each aim to become the winning majority. Though versions of the game may account for more specialized roles and alignments, our version uses the original game of Mafia where additional roles will only include a doctor and a cop, both in favor of the townies. This paper focuses on the impact of each role at different stages of the game to form optimal strategies for the different roles, taking into account that mafias depend on possibility while the townies depend on probability. A hypothesis is first made with theoretical probabilities based on common and logical plays that will then be compared to experimental probabilities derived from real-life games conducted. These findings are then evaluated to compose a strategy. This investigation focuses on a theoretical game with perfect circumstances, disregarding qualitative factors, that include but are not limited to, bluffing, body language, and manipulation, that may affect players’ mannerisms and potentially the outcome of the game. It turns out that an individual vanilla townie has limited flexibility in their playstyle since they should always vote as a group while the mafia will have to rely on random possibilities to eliminate special roles. Moreover, the doctor should act as any other vanilla townie, never revealing their role, while cops, should share their investigations and reveal themselves when half the number of the mafia are found.

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