HONOLULU (May 20) -- Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will likely leave for Pyongyang tomorrow with a lighter heart if his friends in Washington can find a way to allow an alleged U.S. military deserter to leave North Korea and not face a court-martial, said an East-West Center specialist on U.S.-Japan security relations.
Sheila Smith believes talks between Washington and Tokyo are "down to the wire" over the quandary facing the two allies. Koizumi hopes to return with family members of five Japanese who were kidnapped by North Korea in the 1970s. The abductees were allowed to return to Japan after Koizumi's 2002 visit and bringing home their families has become an intensely felt human story among the Japanese public. But one of the family members is Charles Robert Jenkins, who the U.S. military says slipped into North Korea in 1965 when he was an Army sergeant assigned near the Korean demilitarized zone. Jenkins, who married one of the Japanese abductees now back in Japan, remains in North Korea with the couple's two daughters.
Japan has asked Washington to give Jenkins "special consideration." Howard Baker, U.S. ambassador to Tokyo, said today that if Jenkins was turned over to the United States, he would be prosecuted for desertion. "Ambassador Baker didn't close the door and likely negotiations will be down to the wire," Smith said, suggesting there may be room for a "quiet compromise of 'we won't ask and you won't send.'
"If the U.S. asks that he be turned over to military custody, Japan will be compelled to comply, and this will surely cast a pall over what otherwise should prove to be a moment of great national celebration."
President George Bush has openly endorsed Koizumi's mission to Pyongyang and has for the past two years insisted that the abductee issue be addressed in comprehensive efforts to entice North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions. This trip will provide fodder for renewed debate over whether the visit signals closer or weaker relations between Washington and Tokyo on Korea policy, Smith said, noting the close friendship that has developed between Bush and Koizumi.
The opposition in Japan has already suggested that Koizumi should bring Jenkins to Japan with or without U.S. permission. But Smith said Jenkins may decide not to return without guarantees that he won't be handed over to the U.S. military, and that may also prevent his daughters from returning. It is unclear what information all the children have been given about their parents' decision to remain in Japan. The returned abductees have told reporters in Japan that their children may still not be aware that their parents were Japanese citizens.
While insisting that Jenkins be turned over to the U.S. government may be logically sound, "the United States will look cold and heartless if this gets in the way of the two daughters returning, and it won't win the hearts and minds of Japanese people."
She also noted that the quandary comes at a time when the U.S. military is under intense scrutiny over the prison abuse in Iraq. On the other hand, with U.S. troops fighting and dying in Iraq and Afghanistan, the idea of "forgiving a deserter could become a volatile issue on the U.S. side."
Sheila Smith can be reached at smiths@eastwestcenter.org, at (808) 944-7427 or (808) 952-0491.