Chris McNally: 'Hot and Sour' Relationship Between China and Japan Likely To Continue

Date: 04-22-2005

HONOLULU (April 22) -- The “hot and sour” relationship between China and Japan is unlikely to diminish, despite their economic interdependence and attempts by leaders of both countries to calm recent tensions, an East-West Center China specialist said.

“The ‘hot’ economics will be tempered by ‘sour’ political relations,” said Chris McNally, a research fellow in politics, governance and security at the East-West Center. “The problems are fundamental. Although Japan has never been able to flesh out an effective leadership role for itself in Asia, it still perceives itself as the pre-eminent Asian power in Asia. China’s rise is already changing the geopolitics to an extent that Japan is becoming less relevant.”

McNally said Japanese officials appear to be trying to bolster their position by strengthening their alliance with the United States and moving Japan toward becoming a “normal” nation, allowing Japan to more effectively flex its military muscle.

“This puts Japan on a collision course with China, and indeed, is not likely to win it much sympathy in other Asian capitals,” McNally said. Already Chinese actions of recent weeks (and minor public demonstrations in South Korea and Vietnam) seem to be derailing Japan's effort to become a permanent member of an enlarged United Nations Security Council, he said.

The relationship between the two Asian giants plummeted after angry Chinese protested Tokyo’s approval of history books that they see as downplaying Japan’s World War II aggression and atrocities. The protests, which appear to have government support, also targeted Japan’s bid to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

The situation seems to be calming down rapidly, McNally noted, with a meeting likely between Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Hu Jintao, China's president, on the sidelines of an Asia-Africa conference in Indonesia. Ultimately, both sides have too much to lose.

Chinese officials are calling for an end to protests, since they fear things could get out of hand and lead to social upheaval. In Japan, the business community has been voicing concerns since much of Japan’s recent recovery has rested on expanding trade with China, leading to a rapid increase in economic interdependence. A full-scale boycott of Japanese goods, which Chinese citizen groups critical of Japan are still intent on encouraging, could hurt Japanese business prospects in the world’s fastest expanding market, McNally said.

An interesting aspect of recent events is the willingness of Chinese leaders to allow such large-scale public demonstrations -- the largest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations, McNally noted. “Although Chinese officials now seem to fear an escalation, the fact that such large public demonstrations were able to be held and have been quite effectively controlled by riot police sets an important domestic precedent. It is likely that citizen groups via the use of email, text messaging, and the Internet will attempt to use this precedent to organize future public demonstrations."

Chris McNally can be reached at (808) 944-7239 or mcnallyc@eastwestcenter.org

This is an East-West Wire, copyright East-West Center