(Note: This commentary originally appeared in The Honolulu Star-Bulletin on Sept. 21, 2009)
This past week, Japan entered a new political era as Yukio Hatoyama took over as Prime Minister at the head of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the convincing winner of the August 30 elections. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is severely and possibly permanently crippled, and facing a leadership crisis.
But it is not certain what this new era heralds or how much will really be new. Like his last three short-lived (LDP) predecessors, Hatoyama is the relatively colorless heir of a family dynasty. He is also a privileged "botchan," the fourth prime minister in a row to be the descendant of a former prime minister. His cabinet of 16 men and two women is strikingly similar to the previous LDP one in age and gender composition. The party's secretary-general, political operative Ichiro Ozawa, has many of the characteristics associated with traditional politicians, including a penchant for scandals and back-room deals. The trial of an aide begins soon.
Like the Liberal Democratic Party, the DPJ is a motley coalition without a cohesive agenda. Ozawa allowed unrealistic and contradictory elements into the party's platform knowing that any serious attempt to enforce or even define a common agenda could break the party up prior to the election. One such contradiction is the promised elimination of the stiff highway tolls combined with an ambitious goal for carbon-emission reductions.
The Japanese electorate was clearly inspired by the change rhetoric of the Obama campaign. They had ample reason to want change: the public remained enraged over the 2007 disclosure that millions of pension records had been lost, the economy has continued to under-perform, income gaps have widened, and some LDP ministers seemed barely competent. The elections were more about what voters did not want rather than any specific, forward-looking proposals. Indeed, despite the size of the victory, polls suggest that only a minority is comfortable with Hatoyama as a prime minister or trusts the DPJ's ability to govern.
The DPJ thus begins with an overwhelming majority, 308 seats out of the 480 in the Diet, and high initial honeymoon approval rating, but little public confidence in its leadership. The low expectations may initially work to Hatoyama's advantage, but the new prime minister aspires to "historic change," and this requires more than an election victory or procedural tweaks. It demands substantive budget reallocations and new policies that effectively address the multiple challenges of a rapidly aging society.
For this, the DPJ will need to take into account the interests of the other institutional actors within the Japanese system, notably the bureaucracy and business community. This certainly does not mean allowing the party to be being dictated to by these elements, but rather developing cooperative relationships with them, drawing upon their expertise, and seeking to make them stakeholders in a new policy agenda.
Meanwhile, Washington will be playing catch-up, since it has not yet forged a strong set of relationships with the new party. However, there is much to work with, including the fact that Hatoyama himself has a Ph.D. from Stanford. The consumer-led growth orientation of the new government also has much to commend itself from the perspective of American economic interests.
The critical U.S.-Japan alliance relationship is rooted in common and complementary interests. It is healthy for both countries re-examine and reaffirm these interests for themselves from time to time, and also to review the quality of their partnership on broader regional and global economic and strategic issues.
The new government in Tokyo, combined with a still relatively new government in Washington, provides significant and overdue opportunities to enhance the cooperation between the world's two largest economies. Positive synergy in the Japan-U.S.-China triangle could become a major driving force in global affairs.
Charles E. Morrison is President of the East-West Center.
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