Christopher McNally: CHINESE VISIT TO U.S. LIKELY TO EMPHASIZE ATMOSPHERE, NOT SUBSTANCE

Date: 04-26-2002

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CHINESE VICE PRESIDENT'S U.S. VISIT LIKELY TO EMPHASIZE ATMOSPHERE, NOT SUBSTANCE

HONOLULU (April 26) -- China's Vice President Hu Jintao will set foot on American soil Saturday, but his visit will offer little of substance and fall short of some U.S. expectations, according to an East-West Center specialist on China.

Hu, coming as Vice President Dick Cheney's official guest, is widely anticipated to lead China through the next decade, and both the United States and the world expect to gain a closer understanding of this still relatively unknown man.

"This visit will likely be rich in atmospherics, but provide little substantive movement in Sino-U.S. relations," said Christopher McNally, an East-West Center fellow.

McNally said the Bush administration sees two key opportunities, explaining why Hu will also hold meetings with President George Bush, the State Department and perhaps the Pentagon. Bush would like to establish a close rapport with Hu, who is only three years older than him, and replicate the warm personal relationship he has built with Russia's President Vladamir Putin. More importantly, the administration hopes to catch a glimpse of Hu's vision for China to help gauge how to develop the U.S.-China relationship.

China would also like to see such a close relationship between the two leaders. "From China's point of view, the visit is an opportunity to warm the frosty winds that have recently buffeted Sino-U.S. relations," McNally said.

China is concerned about the Bush administration's more vocal support for Taiwan's defenses and political status; an unnecessary expansion of the war on terrorism in Asia; and anti-Chinese feelings in the administration that could lead to a policy of China containment.

Hu himself, however, will want to keep a relatively low profile. He has remained unknown to the rest of the world while being a very astute player in Chinese politics. In the United States, he will not want to upstage his present boss, President Jiang Zemin. Nor will he want to divulge too much about his political opinions and vision for China's future. Instead, McNally said, he will try to impress his hosts as well as his mentors in China by generating a friendly, frank and personal atmosphere with Bush, Cheney and other administration officials.

Christopher McNally can be reached at 808-944-7239 or mcnallyc@eastwestcenter.org

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