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HONOLULU (Aug. 11) — A group of influential policymakers, government officials, and academic experts from the United States and the Asia Pacific region have just concluded three days of intensive discussions on three areas of common concern. The participants in the East-West Center-sponsored Senior Policy Seminar concluded that the Asia Pacific region is not in crisis. But, they agreed that the region faces a variety of situations and problems which, if not managed in a conscious and collaborative manner, could develop into serious challenges to regional stability and economic progress.
Northeast Asia Tensions
The first agenda topic was tensions in Northeast Asia. Although the North Korean nuclear threat and the stalemate in the 6-Party Talks remain the most immediate preoccupations, many saw tensions among the other five parties as a more fundamental issue. Japan, China and South Korea are struggling with history, social and cultural issues that are linked with their respective national identities. All three governments are also captives of their own nationalism, which complicates the management of relations with the other countries of the region.
Several participants argued that the primary costs of these tensions are really opportunity costs … they deprive the region of the many benefits that could accrue from closer cooperation. However, no governments now seem ready to lead in taking the steps necessary to facilitate cooperation.
Most seminar participants agreed that relations between the United States and the regional states, especially China, can play a critical role in moderating tensions or, if not managed well, causing misperceptions and miscalculations and exacerbating the problems.
Ferment in Asian Islam
The ferment within Islam in Asia is another complex challenge for many of the countries of the region. It was pointed out that although at base this is a religious phenomenon — a debate across the region over the role of Islam in individual and community life — the current ferment has major political dimensions, both within and between states.
Although there are common forces at work, magnified by the effects of globalization, each community and country has unique circumstances, and no common explanation or formula fits all.
The central responsibility for the policy response to the ferment lies with the governments and societies of each country. They must deal with a two-fold challenge, to counter the immediate threat of organized terrorist groups and to take long-term action to reduce the inequities and grievances that provide recruiting grounds for terrorism.
Others outside the region, most importantly including the United States, do have a significant stake in whether moderate or extremist voices prevail in Islamic communities. But, they can play at best an indirect role in the response, for example through assisting long-term efforts in strengthening education and economic equity. Attempts at direct intervention or prescription are most likely to be inappropriate and even counterproductive.
U.S. relations with Islamic countries and communities are now strongly handicapped by perceptions of American bias toward Israel in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and of the American-conceived “War on Terror” as a war against Islam. This is a bedrock belief in most of the Islamic world, including East Asia, and is resistant to repeated denials by American leaders.
The use of shorthand labels such as “Islamic terrorist” in Western statements and media exacerbates the perception that the West lumps all Muslims with the terrorists and thus plays into the hands of the terrorists. Although there is an Islamic connection, since the major terrorist groups claim to be acting in the name of Islam, less generic formulas such as using the names of specific terrorist groups would reduce the impression of associating an entire religion with the actions of a small minority.
Sustainable Economic Growth?
There was broad agreement that robust growth rates in Asia will continue. There will be adjustments, however, and the debate centered on whether those would result in a soft or hard landing.
Business leaders attending the Seminar were basically bullish on the economic outlook. Economists, on the other hand, were more concerned with structural weaknesses and the possibilities for hard landings.
It was also noted that governments generally lack the political will to deal with major structural problems, something that increases the prospect that eventual adjustments will be determined by market action rather than conscious policy decisions.
One of the major overhanging problems identified are the symmetrical imbalances in the American and Chinese economies … the huge and persistent American current account deficits in trade, and Chinese surpluses largely reflecting exports to the United States. It was pointed out that downturns in either economy would directly impact the other, with China being the more vulnerable due to the greater weakness of its financial institutions. But, neither government appears willing to take concerted policy steps to reduce these imbalances because of the risks of sparking off recession and major disruptions.
Are large global trade organizations the answer? Maybe not. The apparent failure of the current Doha round of trade negotiations calls into question the usefulness of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a global trade negotiating process, although it may still serve as a dispute-adjudication mechanism. The problems of the WTO are one impetus for the proliferation of regional, small group and bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTA). However, despite the complications for global trade of such multiple regimes, the smaller efforts do provide a mechanism for pursuing liberalization when global institutions are unable to do so.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Although the United States still has a major stake and a major role to play in Asia, the U.S. government is distracted with other problems and is not paying sufficient attention to the region. At the same time, while generally desiring U.S. interest, Asian states are not waiting for U.S. attention or participation. They are increasingly fashioning their own responses to problems and institutional arrangements.
This means that when Washington does again focus more directly on Asia, perhaps in a crisis situation, time and opportunities may be lost as the United States has to understand and adjust to the changed regional context.
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For more information, please contact Richard W. Baker, special assistant to the EWC president, at (808) 944-7371 or via email at BakerR@EastWestCenter.org
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