Two new East-West Center publications: Summaries below.
1. Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy? by Wang Feng. AsiaPacific Issues, No. 77. March 2005.
http://www.eastwestcenter.org/stored/pdfs/api077.pdf
2. What Motivates Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia Today? by Jennifer Amyx. AsiaPacific Issues, No. 76. February 2005. http://www.eastwestcenter.org/stored/pdfs/api076.pdf
Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy?
By Wang Feng
Twenty-five years after it was launched, China's "One Child" population control policy is credited with cutting population growth to an all time low and contributing to two decades of spectacular economic development. But the costs associated with the policy are also apparent and are rising: a growing proportion of elderly with inadequate government or family support, a disproportionately high number of male births attributable to sex selective abortion, increased female infant and child mortality rates, and the collapse of a credible government birth-reporting system.
Today, as China contemplates the future of the policy, many argue that a change that allows couples to have two children will not lead to uncontrollable population growth. Instead, it could help meet the fertility desires of most Chinese couples; avoid a worsening of the demographic and social consequences already evident; and relieve the Chinese government of the immense financial and political costs of enforcing an unpopular policy. But changes will need to come soon if China is to avert even greater negative consequences of the policy.
What Motivates Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia Today?
By Jennifer Amyx
Regional financial cooperation in East Asia is proceeding with unprecedented intensity. Latest developments include two Asian Bond Funds, created by the regional central bankers group, and an Asian Bond Markets Initiative launched by the finance ministers of the Association of South East Asian Nations member states plus China, Japan, and South Korea (or ASEAN+3).
Some observers continue to attribute such cooperation to sharpened antagonism between East Asia and the West since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. But this view overlooks a key internal driver: China's shift to a more proactive stance toward regional cooperation. Far from demonstrating an antagonism toward market-based financial systems, ASEAN+3 members are embracing more liberal rules for economic interaction in their creation of regional bond funds and markets. Financial cooperation in East Asia is today motivated by factors that differ considerably from those observed in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis-and the implications extend beyond East Asia.