Kang Wu, Fereidun Fesharaki: POLITICS, TECHNOLOGY BLOCK CENTRAL ASIA'S OIL

Date: 07-15-2002

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POLITICS, TECHNOLOGY BLOCK CENTRAL ASIA'S OIL TO ASIA PACIFIC

"Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?" by Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki, Asia Pacific Issues No. 60, May 2002. See the PDF file at http://www.eastwestcenter.org/stored/pdfs/api060.pdf

HONOLULU (July 15) -- Construction problems in West China, a vulnerable U.S.-Iran relationship, and political instability in Afghanistan and South Asia will hold up the flow of Central Asia's oil to the Asia-Pacific region for decades, East-West Center energy experts say.

Dependence on Middle East oil has caused Asia Pacific countries to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers, write Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki in a newly released East-West Center publication. Central Asia is an attractive possibility.

However, "not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia," Wu and Fesharaki write. Passage via pipelines "south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties.

"Central Asia is eager to join the Middle East in fueling Asia Pacific's growth, but a solid energy triangle between Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Central Asia will be difficult to form in the coming decades."

Instead, Central Asia's primary target for energy exports in the near future will be Europe and Russia. "Fierce competition" among Central Asian countries over oil and gas routes will continue.

Kang Wu can be reached at the East-West Center in Honolulu at (808)944-7521 or wuk@eastwestcenter.org Fereidun Fesharaki can be reached at (808)944-7527 or fesharaf@eastwestcenter.org

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