Arun Swamy: SELF-DECEPTION SURROUNDS INDIA-PAKISTAN SUMMIT


Date: 07-13-2001

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SELF-DECEPTION SURROUNDS INDIA-PAKISTAN SUMMIT

HONOLULU (July 13) -- This weekend's India-Pakistan Summit is unlikely to break the stalemate in the subcontinent because the two countries are holding to positions that are no longer credible, a South Asia expert at the East-West Center said. But such acknowledgment from the two countries may require international pressure.

India continues to insist that the Kashmir dispute should be resolved bilaterally, not internationally, while Pakistan insists that it bears no responsibility for militant activity in Kashmir. "Everyone knows nuclear weapons make Kashmir an international issue, and everyone knows Pakistan backs the militants," said Arun Swamy. Any progress may depend on "clear communication from the United States and other major powers. It also depends on how strong an incentive can be offered to India, the more powerful party, to make it accept that resolving the Kashmir conflict requires international mediation."

Swamy said a "second delusion" surrounding the summit is that each country believes the other will come around to its own point of view. "India believes Pakistan will eventually reconcile itself to the status quo, and Pakistan believes India will eventually accept the loss of Kashmir. But neither the public nor the political class in either country is ready to accept these views. Nor is either side in a position to inflict enough cost on the other to force change, especially now that both countries possess nuclear arsenals."

Swamy said any progress may require putting a Kashmir decision on hold. India must accept that Kashmir is a state in dispute under international law and Pakistan must agree that it can only be resolved through a political process free of armed conflict. While India would not agree to a plebiscite, a first step could be allowing political parties that advocate separatism to participate in elections. In return, Pakistan must stop supporting militant activities in Kashmir. "This would be a major concession on India's part for which the payoffs would be the end of militant activity and the opportunity to win Kashmiris over politically."

Arun Swamy can be reached at swamya@eastwestcenter.org or (808)944-7542. He can also be reached at home at (808)922-7519.
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