Honolulu (March 31) -- This report includes brief comments and analysis from East-West Center specialists on elections in South Korea, Taiwan, India, the Philippines and Indonesia -- all struggling with the challenges of democracy.
1. (Taiwan Election March 20)
TAIWAN'S REFERENDUM FAILURE, ELECTION UNCERTAINTY BENEFIT CHINA
Ruling Party Wraps Itself in Pro-Democracy Emotion
2. (Indonesia Election April 5)
INDONESIAN POLITICS: 'KALEIDOSCOPE' THAT BEARS WATCHING
3. (South Korea Election April 15)
POLITICAL TURMOIL MAY LEAD SOUTH KOREANS TO CHOOSE LEADERS MORE CAREFULLY
4. (India Election April 20-May 13)
SUCCESSFUL COALITION POLITICS DEMONSTRATES 'MATURING' OF INDIAN DEMOCRACY
Outsourcing Could Become Test of US Sincerity
5. (Philippines Election May 10)
ELECTIONS IN PHILIPPINES BRING LITTLE CHANGE FOR POOR
1. TAIWAN'S REFERENDUM FAILURE, ELECTION UNCERTAINTY BENEFIT CHINA
Ruling Party Wraps Itself in Pro-Democracy Emotion
Although Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's election is not in Mainland China's interest, the failure of both referendum questions and the continued uncertainty about the election outcome are positive for Beijing, said Chris McNally, the East-West Center's China specialist.
"Beijing can now point to how Chen's electoral strategies emphasizing identity politics have split the island's electorate in half, with two very different views of how Taiwan's future relations with the mainland should develop," McNally said. "However, with Chen's weakened mandate for any change in cross-strait relations, it will be up to Beijing to take the initiative. A more nuanced policy of reaching out to the concerns of the Taiwanese electorate might help break the ice that envelopes cross-straits relations."
A referendum vote on strengthening defenses against China, seen by many as a move toward independence from China, failed to achieve the required threshold of 50 percent of eligible voters. The results of Chen's narrow victory are being contested.
Mark Valencia, a Center specialist on maritime policy and international relations in Asia, was one of 15 Americans asked by the Taiwan government to observe the election. Valencia said a downside of the Taiwan election was the "blatant playing of the ethnic card." Valencia noted the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) use of a Taiwanese national identity as a political strategy, which set the opposition Kuomingtang's "mainlanders" apart from the rest of the electorate.
Valencia said the deep feelings held by the DPP about democracy were "hard to fathom. It's like a bulletproof vest they wrap around themselves to protect them from the 'big bad wolf' across the strait." DPP members also believe the "United States will come riding in on a white horse" to protect them at any cost. "It's more faith than reason or strategic rationale."
Chris McNally can be reached at 808-944-7239 or mcnallyc@eastwestcenter.org
Mark Valencia can be reached at 808-944-7247 or valencim@eastwestcenter.org
2. INDONESIAN POLITICS: 'KALEIDOSCOPE' THAT BEARS WATCHING
As Indonesia approaches its national parliamentary (DPR) elections, the major question is how the outcome will influence the country's first direct presidential election, scheduled for July, said Richard Baker, an Indonesia specialist at the East-West Center. Slates of president/vice president candidates will not be selected until after the DPR results are known.
Baker said the emerging consensus among observers and pollsters is that former President Suharto's political vehicle Golkar is likely to win the most votes and seats in the national DPR, ahead of incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P. This will further complicate the already complex maneuvering among the parties and leaders for president/vice president teams.
A major "X" factor in this equation is Megawati's former coordinating minister for political and security affairs, Gen. (Ret.) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who resigned (or was forced out) from the cabinet two weeks ago and immediately threw his support behind the new Democratic Party. Baker said this new party was formed with the explicit intention of drafting the general as an attractive alternative to the existing group of leaders. Whether a new party organization, even if headed by a popular and widely respected figure, can win enough parliamentary seats to be a factor in the presidential contest remains to be seen.
A second question worth watching in the April election, Baker said, is the fortune of the reformist/purist Islamic Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), one of the few parties that is expected to actually increase its vote total over 1999 by appealing primarily to younger, educated, devout Muslims who are disaffected from the established, unexciting and generally corrupt parties and leadership, Baker said.
"Indonesia's election, like its politics, has a kaleidoscopic character to it," Baker, said, "a space the more worth watching because Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and has the largest Islamic population of any country."
Richard Baker can be reached at 808-944-7371 or bakerr@eastwestcenter.org
3. POLITICAL TURMOIL MAY LEAD SOUTH KOREANS TO CHOOSE LEADERS MORE CAREFULLY
South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun's leadership has led to political turmoil in his country, said Choong Nam Kim, the East-West Center's specialist on the Korean Peninsula and U.S.-Korea relations, and this may result in the long term in Koreans weighing their vote for president more carefully.
"The long-term impact may prove positive," he said about Roh's recent impeachment. "It tells the public to be careful about voting for confident and competent leadership."
Kim, who served as assistant for political affairs under former South Korean Presidents Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo, said President Roh Moo Hyun's actions since taking office have deeply polarized the country. He was unprepared for the presidency and he hired inexperienced advisers, eight of whom have been indicted for corruption, Kim said. The president was also determined to weaken the opposition through charges of immorality and corruption. "Roh invited his own tragedy," Kim said.
Roh's impeachment was a last resort by the opposition to gain support in the upcoming election, Kim said. But 70 percent of Koreans disapprove of the impeachment because they feel their top leader, chosen in a Democratic election, should not be removed from power this way. The president is also viewed as less corrupt than the National Assemblymen who impeached him, Kim said.
Kim predicted that South Korea's Constitutional Court will not support the impeachment. Polls indicate the ruling party will dominate the National Assembly and Roh Moo Hyun will remain in office. If so, his administration will continue to make radical changes in the country by trying to consolidate pro-North Korea, populist and independent-oriented (anti-American) policies, Kim predicted.
If the opposition wins, Kim said, political confrontation will intensify and the public will become more divided. "Too much democracy can create problems," Kim said.
Choong Nam Kim can be reached at 808-944-7372 or kimcn@eastwestcenter.org
4. SUCCESSFUL COALITION POLITICS DEMONSTRATES 'MATURING' OF INDIAN DEMOCRACY
Outsourcing Could Become Test of US Sincerity
India's upcoming general election represents the continuing "maturation" of Indian democracy because it shows India has outgrown the need to have a single party dominate the electoral scene, said Arun Swamy, South Asia specialist at the East-West
Center.
This will be the 14th general election held since 1952. Until 1989 Indian politics was dominated by a single party, the Congress Party, and by a single political dynasty, the Nehru-Gandhis. The Congress Party has lost four of the last five elections and been out of power for eight years, while the Nehru-Gandhi family has been out of office for 15 years. However, this is the first time that a coalition government, or a government led by a party other than the Congress Party, has completed a full five-year term.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) represents challenges for Indian democracy. The leading party of the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did not become a significant force until the 1990s. Militantly nationalistic in many areas, the BJP has been identified with harsh politics toward minorities, especially Muslims. "The BJP is a narrow party compared to the Congress Party, but it has built alliances." In power since 1998, BJP is expected to win the election, mainly because it's better at building coalitions than the Congress Party.
Swamy said the BJP's nationalist ideology and its assertiveness against Pakistan and the United States are popular with middle class voters. The economy has also done well and recent harvests have been good. He said under the BJP, "economic liberalization will pick up steam" with more selling of government enterprises and a pro-business approach to labor laws. A major question is how the government will treat minorities and how this will affect relations between Muslims and Hindus. Swamy speculated that the government will likely go back and forth between moderate and hardline policies depending on political expediency.
In foreign policy there will be little change. Tensions may ease with Pakistan for a while but talks will likely produce few concrete results, Swamy said. And relations with the United States, which have been improving steadily, will plateau as India recognizes that Pakistan remains an important ally of the United States.
Regarding outsourcing of white-collar jobs to India, Swamy warned of very adverse consequences if there was a serious effort in the United States to shut down IT outsourcing. Although outsourcing overall produces a small percent of jobs in India, it is a significant source of employment for college graduates. "Young, educated
unemployed are the most dangerous politically." This is also viewed by Indian critics of free trade as a test of Western sincerity on the issue, which the United States is seen as having forced on India.
Arun Swamy can be reached at 808-944-7542 or swamya@eastwestcenter.org
5. PHILIPPINE ELECTIONS BRING LITTLE CHANGE FOR POOR
The Philippine political system has created great wealth for a few and poverty for many, and the next presidential election is unlikely to change that fact, regardless of who wins, said Jerry Finin, a specialist on the Philippines at the East-West Center.
"Ultimately it's the poor who suffer when national leadership is lacking," Finin said. "The outcome of the election is unlikely to make a significant difference for the poor majority."
Of the three candidates -- Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Fernando Poe Jr., and Raul Roco -- recent polls suggest Poe may win. Poe is a movie star like his friend and supporter Joseph Estrada, the former president of the Philippines who was driven out of office. Arroyo, who was vice president under Estrada, has the backing of several powerful, rich families and campaigns on the theme of a strong republic and a death penalty for criminals.
Estrada has been charged with gross corruption. While some in the Philippines are predicting Poe will show the same incompetence as Estrada, Finin said others believe Poe is "cut from other cloth. He could potentially do something good for the Philippines. But it's a big gamble."
Jerry Finin can be reached at 808-944-7751 or fininj@eastwestcenter.org