The creation and application of two innovative real-time delphi and cross-impact simulation approaches to forecast the future: forecasting high-speed broadband developments for the State of Hawaiʻi

Abstract

Technology development is moving rapidly and our dependence on information services is growing. Building a broadband infrastructure that can support future demand and change is therefore critical to social, political, economic and technological developments. It is often up to local policy makers to find the best solutions to support this demand and development. Because policy making is inherently a long-range planning exercise optimal solutions are best identified using methodologies that deal with planning for alternative futures. Futures methodologies identify, study, and plan for alternative futures, and are therefore a good fit to increase the probabilities of success when developing telecommunication policies. The goals of this study were to contribute to methodology in the futures field by evolving and extending existing methods, to create an expert based model for future broadband related developments in Hawaii, and to develop recommendations for future Hawaii broadband developments. The study took advantage of recent technological developments to evolve and extend well known futures studies methodologies and develop novel Real-Time Delphi and Cross-Impact simulation software. Next, future broadband related trends and events were identified via interviews with high level telecommunications experts. These trends and events were then used as input in the Real-Time Delphi software for expert forecasting. The output from the forecasts were used as input to the Cross-Impact simulator, creating and exploring models of possible, probable and desirable futures for broadband in Hawaii. The final results were recommendations of specific focal areas for broadband developments in Hawaii.