Determining Visitor Growth for Hotel Unit Forecasting in the Hawaii Tourist Industry
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2014-09-26
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University of Hawaii at Manoa
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This report examines the Japanese and Canadian economies in an effort to discover links between the economies and the number of visitors who travel to Hawaii annually from each country. The identified links are incorporated into a model that can be used to predict future visitor levels based on forecasted changes in selected economic indicators. Hotel developers in Hawaii can use future visitor arrival estimates to judge the number of units to plan for in new hotel developments. Developers must carefully consider the fact that these estimates are based on two foreign visitor populations that make up 82.9% of the foreign market, or 22.8% of the entire market, and thus serve only as a partial representation of the total visitor population. The vast number of visitors arriving from across the continental U.S. is another group to consider altogether. Domestic visitor travel to Hawaii lies beyond the scope of this analysis. The hypothesis presented in this study is that "a portion of capital asset requirements for tourism can be determined from the level of foreign visitor arrivals, and their length of stay in Hawaii". Foreign visitor arrivals, in turn, can be determined from the performance of their respective economies. If there is a significant level of correlation between one or more economic variables in a given foreign economy and the number of visitors arriving in Hawaii from that country, then projections of capital asset requirements can be developed from projections of the changes in these foreign economic variables over time.
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ii, 48 pages
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