Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

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dc.contributor.authorFriedrich, Tobias
dc.contributor.authorTimmermann, Axel
dc.contributor.authorTigchelaar, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorTimm, Oliver Elison
dc.contributor.authorGanopolski, Andrey
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-17T02:42:38Z
dc.date.available2017-02-17T02:42:38Z
dc.date.issued2016-11-09
dc.description.abstractGlobal mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.
dc.format.extent12 pages
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.1501923
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10125/43706
dc.language.isoen-US
dc.publisherScience Advances
dc.relation.urihttp://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectclimate sensitivity
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjectglacial cycles
dc.subjectgreenhouse effect
dc.subjectcarbon dioxide
dc.subjectice age
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectmodeling
dc.subjectpaleo
dc.subjectCMIP5
dc.titleNonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.dcmiText

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