Predicting allies' choices in an era of US-China competition

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2021-11-22
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East-West Center
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Honolulu, HI : East-West Center
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In today's environment of growing US-China competition, America's allies are increasingly faced with a series of international relations choices between the two powers. Quick take:
- America's allies are increasingly faced with competing demands for allegiance by Beijing and Washington on a range of security and economic issues.
- As competition intensifies, hedging--an attractive choice for many countries--becomes less of a viable option.
- International relations expert Dr. Victor Cha has developed a model to predict allies' choices based on their degree of investment in the existing world order and faith in the US as protector of that order.
- While such choices might give the impression of disloyalty to Washington or fealty to Beijing, Cha said, they do not necessarily represent a fundamental strategic shift.
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