Predicting allies' choices in an era of US-China competition

Abstract

In today's environment of growing US-China competition, America's allies are increasingly faced with a series of international relations choices between the two powers. Quick take:- America's allies are increasingly faced with competing demands for allegiance by Beijing and Washington on a range of security and economic issues.- As competition intensifies, hedging--an attractive choice for many countries--becomes less of a viable option.- International relations expert Dr. Victor Cha has developed a model to predict allies' choices based on their degree of investment in the existing world order and faith in the US as protector of that order.- While such choices might give the impression of disloyalty to Washington or fealty to Beijing, Cha said, they do not necessarily represent a fundamental strategic shift.