Developing Indicators and Forecasting Demand for Enhanced Regional Community-Based Integrated Care Systems in Japan

Abstract

This study evaluates the current state and future demand of the Community-based Integrated Care System (CICS) across Japan’s 1889 municipalities. Aimed at achieving a better CICS, this research developed indicators to evaluate the existing care structures within each municipality. Utilizing 73 indicators covering housing, medical care, long-term care, livelihood support, and preventive services, we conducted a comprehensive analysis to identify regional disparities and strengths. The indicators were visualized using radar charts and standardized to enable cross-regional comparisons. Future projections were made to estimate service and personnel demands, highlighting significant regional variations and emphasizing the need for region-specific policy planning and resource allocation. Our system allows for the evaluation and comparison of policies based on these indicators, determining their long-term significance. This research provides critical insights for policymakers and healthcare providers, offering a solid foundation for enhancing the CICS framework and supporting the creation of resilient, elderly-friendly communities throughout Japan.