A Signal Detection Theory Approach to Predicting Immunity to Pandemic Vaccine Fake News

Abstract

Managing a contagious disease pandemic, such as COVID-19, requires that the public understand and cooperate with behavioral guidelines to reduce viral transmission. This research uses Signal Detection Theory (SDT) to explore how U.S. adults distinguish between true and false information related to COVID-19 vaccines. A total of 372 U.S. adults categorized 17 true and 17 false COVID-19 vaccine headlines. Item Response Theory analyses suggest that the ability to identify true information about the pandemic is a construct that can be reliably measured with our novel methodology. Signal Detection Theory analyses indicate high accuracy (AUC = 0.861), with no bias favoring either true or false responses. Overall, U.S. adults correctly classified 7 of 10 true and 8 of 10 false headlines. Multiple regression analyses on individual performance metrics reveal substantially lower accuracy among conservatives and those with lower scores on a measure of Actively Open-minded Thinking. Implications and limitations of these findings within the pandemic news context are discussed.