Toward Smart City Digital Twins: Bridging Preparation and Response Phases in Urban Flood Evacuation through Agent-Based Modeling

Abstract

This study presents an agent-based digital twin model for urban flood evacuation, using Okazaki City, Japan, as a case study. The model bridges the preparation and response phases of flood management by combining static infrastructure data with dynamic flood hazard and evacuation instruction data, enabling simulation of individual-level evacuation behaviors under changing conditions. By quantifying journey durations, the model revealed disparities in accessibility to safety. Results show that evacuation success depends on infrastructure and individual factors, with limited mobility increasing the risk of delay or failure. It also supports scenario-based evaluation of policy options, such as evacuation strategies and road closures, enhancing applicability across different disaster types and urban contexts. While the current version relies on secondary data and simplified assumptions, it demonstrates the feasibility of using digital twins for evacuation planning. Incorporating behavioral and traffic data and engaging stakeholders more deeply would enhance the model’s realism and strengthen its role as a reliable mirror of real-world evacuation processes for policy evaluation.