Optimal control for land use decisions in Hawaii: model formulation and potential applicability

Abstract

The potential applicability of systems control theory to analyze the empirical performance of agricultural land allocation among competing uses in Hawaii has been undertaken as part of this dissertation, The pattern and trends of land use redistricting were statistically analyzed using dummy variable techniques to account for periodic redistricting effects of five-year boundary reviews during the early stages of the State Land Use Control Program. This discrete feedback function of five-year boundary reviews was replaced by continuous annual feedbacks which are currently in effect after the major discrepancies in initial boundary designations for the land use districts (Urban, Agriculture, and Conservation) were corrected. The study showed that the loss of Agricultural District Lands are overstated when the early redistricting adjustments are not correctly taken into account. The reported annual average rate of loss of Agricultural District Lands of 151,819 acres /year since the implementation of the State Land Use Law in 1962 to the present, actually amounts to a net 39,584 acres/year or about one-fourth of the reported level. The larger portion (112,235 acres/year) can be accounted for in increased Conservation District Lands which represent a store for future use. Most (94 percent) of the agricultural acreage actually lost went into the Urban District which gained 37,044 acres/year. The remaining 6 percent or 2,540 acres/year were simply redesignated into a new Rural District, a transitional type district, established in the early phases of the program. The relative marginal rates of annual losses are even smaller and decreasing over time. Although the loss of Agricultural District Lands may be grossly exaggerated by these numbers, it is important not to underestimate the significance of agricultural land losses. A major portion (over 70 percent) of the converted lands were high quality agricultural lands which are scarce in the Islands. Also, agricultural import dependency has risen to a very high level and is increasing in the State in spite of counteracting State policies toward agricultural self-sufficiency.