An integrated energy planning model for Taiwan: multiobjective programming and input-output approaches

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the physical and economic aspects of the trade-off between economic goals (e.g., growth and development) and energy goals (e.g., reducing oil dependence or energy consumption). To meet this purpose, a Non-Inferior Set Estimation Input-output (NISE-IO) model consisting of a combination of multiobjective programming techniques and Leontief input-output analyses is utilized. This model is compared with conventional linear programming, goal programming, input-output, and econometrics approaches. A major innovation of this NISE-IO algorithm is the computation of the maximum possible error, which the analyst may control to obtain an approximation within a desired degree of accuracy. The derived noninferior solutions in the objective space and optimal solutions in the decision space represent 5i.ulated scenarios of aggressive. moderate, and conservative policy alternatives. The analyses are focused on the economic performances resulting from these policy alternatives and the energy requirements for supporting these economic performances. The results are presented in graphic and tabular form as reference for Taiwan's energy policymakers. These solutions aid policy makers in energy planning~ of issues such as achieving a specified econo5ic growth rate with minimum consumption of energy, the relationship between energy demand/supply and economic development/growth lowering the elasticity of energy, considerations for "industrial restructuring," and estimating the economic impacts of assumed disruption of energy supply on the Taiwan economy. The key conclusions of this study show that whichever policy alternative is adopted, electricity (implying nuclear power) and coal should be the priorities for economic development/growth and substitutes for petroleum consumption. To reduce heavy reliance on energy and raw-material imports. the Taiwan economy should shift its industrial structure from labor- and energy-intensive to less-energy-intensive, high-technology, and light-engineering manufacturing such as "electrical machinery industrial blocks."