Reinforcing national security and regional stability : the implications of nuclear weapons and strategies

Abstract

The study advances four other propositions on the implications of nuclear weapons and strategies for security and stability in the Asian security region and for the global nuclear order. First, it argues that nuclear weapons have a modifying effect, but they do not fundamentally alter system structure (distribution of power) or the patterns of amity and enmity. By strengthening weaker powers, nuclear weapons have helped offset imbalances in conventional and nuclear capabilities and mitigated the negative consequences of those imbalances. Second, the impact of nuclear weapons on alliance formation and sustenance is mixed. In the abstract, nuclear weapons should enhance internal balancing and reduce the need for external balancing; this should reduce the significance of alliances. Third, on conflict resolution, the study posits that the enormous destructive power of nuclear weapons argues against dispute resolution through the physical use of violence. At the same time, nuclear weapons are not a barrier to peaceful conflict resolution. Finally, the study posits that if it is to continue to be relevant, the nuclear order that emerged during the Cold War must substantially alter to accommodate contemporary strategic realities, including a focus on Asia, which has become a core world region and in which strategic competition is likely to intensify. A "new" nuclear order that is likely to emerge gradually would have to address at least four challenges: (1) sustaining deterrence in a condition of asymmetry and small nuclear forces, (2) accommodating "new" nuclear weapon states, (3) preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states and to nonstate actors, and (4) facilitating the safe and secure development of nuclear energy to meet the growing demand for this clean fuel.