Thrown or Thriving: Modeling Buckoff Risk in Professional Bull Riding

Abstract

This study develops two regression frameworks to model buckoff risk and rider performance in professional bull riding. Using a Cox proportional hazards model, we estimate how bull and rider characteristics affect the time until buckoff. On the condition that the ride is a full 8-second ride, we apply linear regression to model rider scoring. Results show that bull difficulty and buckoff history are strong predictors of ride failure and scoring potential, while rider experience offers modest protection. Although direct injury data are unavailable, buckoffs serve as a practical proxy for risk, supporting applications in injury prevention, matchup planning, and training design.