The Roles and Implications of Black Swan Events in Tackling Deep Uncertainty in Relief Distribution: A Collective Case Study

Abstract

Relief distribution (RD) after a natural disaster is conducted under conditions of deep uncertainty (DU). The dynamic context is characterized by limited and often conflicting, ever-changing information flows, as well as interrupted material flows, even when response operations are well-prepared. RD decision making (RDDM) is thus challenging. In this paper, we draw upon concepts of Black Swan Events (BSE) to understand how DU challenges (DUC) can be mitigated. By revealing known and unknown consequences of BSEs during operations, decision-makers can identify and evaluate critical points in relief distribution management steps. We analyzed the relief efforts during the “2007 Sidr Cyclone” case in Bangladesh to identify and understand potential DUCs and related BSEs. Then we verified the concepts through two cases, the “2015 Gorkha Earthquake” in Nepal and the “2018 Sulawesi Earthquake” in Indonesia. Based on our findings, we propose a BSE-informed DUC-tackling framework for more effective RDDM in practice.