"Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

dc.contributor.author Endress, Tobias
dc.contributor.author Gear, Tony
dc.date.accessioned 2017-12-28T02:00:07Z
dc.date.available 2017-12-28T02:00:07Z
dc.date.issued 2018-01-03
dc.description.abstract Crowd predictions in the domain of stock-price forecasting is a fascinating concept. Several special-interest online communities were founded following this idea. However, there is a limited body of literature about the domain of stock-price predictions based on such a crowdsourced approach. This paper presents an empirical study in the form of a two-phase, sequential mixed-methods experiment. Data from purposefully designed groups, consisting of lay people and professional financial analysts, were examined to inform the understanding of the prediction process. The findings led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as -˜deliberated intuition for groups’. The model of deliberated intuition for groups, which is proposed here, views prediction as a process of practice which will be different for each individual and group. The model proposes that a predictor will decide, consciously or semi-consciously, either to rely on gut-feeling or to undertake more analysis.
dc.format.extent 8 pages
dc.identifier.doi 10.24251/HICSS.2018.514
dc.identifier.isbn 978-0-9981331-1-9
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10125/50403
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof Proceedings of the 51st Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject Crowd Science
dc.subject crowdsouring, decision-making, forecasting, intuition, stock prices
dc.title "Deliberated Intuition for Groups": An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting
dc.type Conference Paper
dc.type.dcmi Text
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