Can Agricultural Intensification Explain Unexpected Cooling of Extreme Heat in the Midwestern United States?
Can Agricultural Intensification Explain Unexpected Cooling of Extreme Heat in the Midwestern United States?
Date
2021
Authors
Yuan, Eleanor
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Roberts, Michael
Department
Oceanography
Global Environmental Science
Global Environmental Science
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Abstract
Despite climate change, data show decreasing maximum temperatures in a portion of the
midwestern United States during the mid-summer. The cause of this “warming hole” is
unknown. Previous research has discussed the importance of aerosols, atmospheric
circulation, and agriculture as contributors to this phenomenon. In this research I examine
the effect of corn and soybean production, the two most prevalent crops in the Midwest,
on maximum temperature anomalies during the summer. I develop a novel test of the
hypothesis, motivated by the research of Mueller et al. (2016), that the unusual cooling is
a result of changes in agriculture via the biological process of evapotranspiration.
Specifically, using data on crop progress from 1981 to 2019, I compare year-to-year
variability in timing of peak transpiration to the corresponding temperature anomalies. I
find mixed results. Soybeans seem to have a cooling effect on the maximum temperatures
while corn seems to have a warming effect. This challenges what one would assume from
the literature that corn, which has a slightly greater evapotranspiration rate, should have
greater or similar cooling effects as soybeans. These findings suggest that while
agricultural activity may influence the climate, the link is more complex than simple
evapotranspirative cooling. While the mechanism is not clear, the empirical evidence
suggests that growth of soybean production may have contributed to the Midwestern
warming hole.
Description
Keywords
climate change,
agriculture,
soybean
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60 pages
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Yuan, Eleanor
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