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Measuring the supply side effect of adjustment lending

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Title:Measuring the supply side effect of adjustment lending
Authors:Owaki, Hiroki
Date Issued:1992
Abstract:Although recent studies have tried to isolate the effect of adjustment lending on representative macroeconomic variables such as GNP, inflation, and the current account, they have not explicitly dealt with the supply side effect on the economy. This is, however, supposed to be one of the most important objectives on which almost all adjustment lending has been concentrated during the last decade. The growth aspect of adjustment lending has recently been getting closer attention due to depressed investment performance. The purpose of this work is to examine the supply side effect with particular emphasis on the efficiency factor. It examines whether or not the possible supply enhancement effect of overall aid money has been augmented by policy reforms which have been imposed on the recipient countries as conditions of adjustment loans. In order to estimate such an effect, a suitable econometric model will be developed. For this purpose, a standard neoclassical growth model with external financial flows will be modified through the introduction of either dummy variables or structural adjustment variables. Pooled regression analysis using cross-section and time-series data from recipient countries shows that in both the IMF-WB program and the export growth case, middle-income Asian countries showed expected, and hence encouraging, results--statistically significant positive effects, with lags. Assuming that there are no problems such as inadequate data on conditionality or insufficient control for autonomous microeconomic policy reform, this implies that factors that were specific and/or idiosyncratic to middle-income Asian countries, at least during the estimation period, impact the efficiency factor in the supply side of the economy concerned. Historical, intellectual, and practical aspects of adjustment lending will also be discussed comprehensively.
Description:Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1992.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 174-177)
ix, 177 leaves, bound ill. 29 cm
Rights:All UHM dissertations and theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission from the copyright owner.
Appears in Collections: Ph.D. - Economics

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