Eliciting Uncertain Resilience Information for Risk Mitigation

Egan, Niles
Menkov, Vladimir
Kantor, Paul
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The literature of risk, mitigation, and resilience is rich in classifications and recommendations. The missing link is evaluation: ideally, data based; initially, based on expert judgment. We present a novel approach for eliciting probability distributions describing mitigation effectiveness. This approach can be used by subject matter experts (SMEs) who are not specialists in mathematics or engineering. A visual interface permits each expert to sketch a distribution by moving five colored dots on the user interface. The engine can weight and combine estimates from several SMEs into an aggregate density function suitable for presentation, and an aggregate cumulated distribution for use in Monte Carlo simulations. Additional supporting software adapts the tool for real-time support of virtual Delphi-type sessions involving multiple distributed experts. Use of the tool in a study aimed at controlling information and communication technology supply chain risks yields valuable information on those threats, and on the tool itself.
Disaster Information, Resilience, for Emergency and Crisis Technologies
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